As the geopolitics is picking up in Afghanistan in the post US troop withdrawal India
has taken a renewed position to develop Iran's Chabahar port which can provide Afghanistan an
alternate access to the sea.
Indian move has come at a time when Iran is also
looking for a second port option which can serve as a unique deep sea port located at the
crossroads of global trade ,commerce and energy routes.
Now Rouhani
government has a change of mind about Iran's
share of Chabahar port development which can serve Tehran's
strategic interest and facilitate Afghanistan's access to sea for trade and
commerce with the help of India.
All three ntaions, India Afghanistan and Iran share
a common goal for stability in Afghanistan and maintaining peace and
development
in the entire region that can ensure long term interests of both India
and Iran.
During UPA government tenure when India
wanted to force Iran for
making investment into the port,Tehran
apparently showed reluctance to make an investment thinking it will drain out
its precious foreign exchange reserves. AT the same time Iran was
adamant that its Bandar Abbas port will be sufficient for handling
Iranian trade and commerce and
therefore further investment into Chabahar may not be value for money.
At that stage China,which is creating ruffles in
the region by introducing an ambitious maritime silk route project ,was keen to
take over the Chabahar port development to ensure its strategic interest
Chabahar port project located in Southeastern Iran and Banddar
Abbas port situated in the Strait of Hormouz have again moved
to the centre stage of geopolitics of the region comprising
Afghanistan,Iran,India,
Iran
plans to use Chabahar for transshipment to Afghanistan and Central
Asia, while keeping the port of Bandar Abbas
as a major hub mainly for trade with Russia
and Europe. Along with Bandar Abbas, Chabahar
is the Iranian entrepot on the North-South corridor. A strategic
partnership
between India, Iran and Russia
is intended to establish a multi-modal transport link connecting Mumbai
with St. Petersburg, providing Europe and the former Soviet
republics of Central Asian region access to Asia. India
has finalized a plan to build a 900 km
long railway line from Bamiyan province in Afghanistan to Chabahar
port. An Indian steel consortium led by Steel Authority of India
Limited has landed an exploration contract in the Hajigak coal fields
located in the Bamiyan
Province .
Occupying a special place in
providing India’s Afghan
planned silk routes consisting of Zaranj-delaram Highway, Chabahar-Iranshahr-Zahedan-
US president Barack Obama during his recent visit to India asked New Delhi
to play a prominent role in stabilizing Afghanistan
in the wake of drawdown of NATO troops and also contemplates the
withdrawal of sanctions against Iran
under the Nuclear agreement that may give a further impetus to Indian
initiatives.
Elaborating further before the US
Congress, Obama said ,” Why we should allow China
to write the economic lines in Asia.”
In 2005 China had openly declared
that it wanted to seize the World power status from US. With this aim
China has been consistently increasing its influence,first by
setting up of an AIR Defence identification Zone (ADIZ) in Asia Pacific,
besides conducting invasions and incursions in India’s north east
on the lines of Tibet and Xinjiang and now it is fast
tightening its grip by setting up of maritime military bases
from Bangladesh’s Chittagong to Cox’s Bazar, Srilanka’s Hambantota and
Gwadar in Balochistan area of Pakistan which aims at controlling
the Indian Ocean.
This is a part of another great game that China plays out in encircling India and this can be considered as tough
war going on between US and China for Asian supremacy.
It is therefore right time and a last
opportunity for India to extensively construct the Chabahar port in Iran.As
China is operating Gwadar port in Southwestern Pakistan with $200 million as a
part of its so called “String of Pearls “ strategy, which
could potentially service PLA Navy vessels to counter US .But the crucial
point remains whether Islamic terrorism will allow China to execute its
plans to link Gwadar with Beijing via rail and connecting the
port through Karakoram highway for constructing a pipeline till Khunjerab
pass boundary of Gilgit-Baltistan and Xinjiang..
India has already much lagged behind China in pursuing its objectives in this
region.It never pursued matters consistently and was instead often swayed
by the decisions of big powers like US and Russia. Resultantly Chabahar port
project in Iran that was to
cater to trade concerns of India
vis-a-vis Afghanistan
was practically abondoned in 1984 .
Until 2012, India
ceased construction of the Chabahar port under pressure from the United States to comply with the international sanctions against Iran under
suspicious Nuclear activities . However, when a Chinese state owned firm took
over administration of the Gwadar port from a Singaporean company in 2012, New
Delhi resumed construction of the Chabahar port though originally Chabahar port
project and transit corridors involved a trilateral agreement between Iran,
India and Russia, the Indian- led 2012 resumption of the project involves the
participation of 11 additional countries from Middle East, the Caucasus,
Central Asia and Europe.
It is therefore imperative to properly
understand the geo politics of this region and lay down a sound policy to
be implemented robustly to achieve our aims.
Pakistan’s economy is heavily dependent on that of Saudi Arabia due to substantial remittances of
its diaspora working in Saudi Arabia
.Besides Saudi Arabia
provides Pakistan with oil
and energy resources on deferred basis which is happening with the tacit
understanding of US which is also financially supporting Pakistan
in a big way.
This has a political implications in this
region. Pakistan is infact
in the main fold of Sunni Islam (Wahabi) while the rival Iran which is providing new India’s planned
Silk Routes on its western border is under the influence of Shia Islam.
However now US is also integrating Iran’s
economic interest by gradually easing sanctions consequent upon the
assurances given by Iran under the Nuclear deal..
This shift in US
policy is obviously to the advantage of India’s
interests in this region especially as US is also ready to give India a
prominent position in Asian affairs. Indian investment in Chabahar is important
for India to protect its
“business and commercial interests” in the landlocked Afghanistan as Pakistan
has denied India transit
access to Afghanistan
through its land route.
China has not budged even an inch from
its stated objectives of achieving world power status by binding
the various countries in the region through commercial
agreements which are the modern day tools of expansion in
this era of globalization. Chinese investments are not threatened even in
the face of resistance by powers like US. That is why China is
simultaneously increasing its military might in the entire area by
establishing naval bases.
The current transition happening in this
region involves targeting of Hazaras’s population in Pakistan
and Afghanistan
by Sunni terrorists. Hazaras are Persian speaking people and follow
Shiite Islam.Their population is concentrated in Quetta
in Pakistan ,Central Afghanistan where they constitute 16% to
22% of population . They are also present in Iran and in some parts of
Balochistan.
The demographic change may ultimately
benefit the Chinese influence in Gwadar which is essentially a military port in
Pakistan
and this should be considered by Indian diplomats.
Challenges to
China’s interests in Pakistan
China collaborated with Pakistan to develop
Gwadar port with the pretext that it will counter the threats from
Indian naval forces to the port of Karachi but the paramount
significance of developing Gwadar port was to strategically
dock Chinese naval ships and to create its energy transport hub
that will allow the construction of a pipeline for importing
crude oil from Arab and African states but there is a major
drawback of insurgency in Balochistan against the Chinese interests
where already a number of Chinese engineers had been killed by the Baloch
terror groups.And this insurgency is likely to continue almost
indefinitely.
Likewise
Pakistan,China wants to encash the benefit of both Gwadar
and Chabahar ports but has to abandon one of them
because of the direct clash of interests between Pakistan
and Iran
. Chabahar port located on the Arabian Sea’s Makran coast in Sistan and Balochistan Province
has free trade zone status and Iran intends to carve out a unified
Balochistan from the areas of Pakistan's Balochistan and Iran's Balochistan but is threatened by Junullah an anti-Iran terrorist group
operating in Pakistan's
territory. But Balochis are up in arms against
Iranians and Chinese with the
understanding that they are depriving them of their own resources..
Iran
holds the key for Afghanistan stabilization as Iran has its high stakes and influence in non-Pushtun Afghanistan
like Pakistan has its influence in Pushtun areas of Afghanistan.Under Obama's
plan, U.S. troop levels would go down to about 5,500 at the end of 2015 and the
military mission essentially would be over at the end of 2016 .
However India
has a key role and benefit in developing Chabahar port.While India can
currently
source goods from Afghanistan through Pakistan,trade in the
opposite direction isn't allowed, leaving landlocked Afghanistan dependent on
its neighbour to the east,with which it shares a lawless border region ridden
with Islamist terrorist groups.Chabahar will not only provide India a shorter trade route to Afghanistan,it can also use this to import minerals from Central Asia.
Chahabar will help India to get easier access to energy -rich Central
Asia and facilitate the import of minerals
from Afghanistan.
Indian PM Modi has declared his keenness to deepen ties with neighbours and the
port is expected to play an important role in the economic reconstruction and
development of Afghanistan
As it is clear that Asia will become the axis for the world
economy,Iran and India as the two great
countries in the region can play an
important role in this regard.Iran and India which have deep historical and
cultural relations are now seeking to
further expand ties in various domains and Chabahar port development can be a
good beginning.
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