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Jul 23, 2010

Wrong choice of an ally

Not without reason, US-led war against Talibans (or terrorism) has gone astray and continues to baffle the best of their civil and military minds. What actually continues to upset their plans has been the wrong choice of Pakistan as a close ally in this war.US was obviously driven to make this flawed choice since Pakistan controlled almost all the routes to the theater of war ,has a bulk of population that speaks the same language (Pushto) and has cradled in the same culture. Additionally they were well acquitted with the topography of areas inhabited by Talibans and thus well versed in their traditional art of warfare.

But these very things proved to be the undoing of their plans as Pakistan had a basic conflict of interest in this episode .Pakistan had infact promoted the Taliban ideology and supported their existence so that they could enable a sizable irregular army of hardcore fundamentalists in the event of war with India. Afghanistan under Taliban regime could also provide Pakistan a ‘strategic depth’ in a similar situation. Talibans were also being used for launching terrorist activities. These drawbacks were very much in the knowledge of US. But they ignored this in a misplaced belief that Pakistan could be lured to act with them by providing financial assistance and military aid.

Now having virtually run out of time and failed to achieve its objectives, US slides as a global power.

Pakistan is given to a number of strange peculiarities. Its ethnic fault lines specifically deny this country the traits of nationhood. Resultantly Bangladesh violently broke away from the country rubbishing the thesis of religion as the sole criteria of nationhood. But the lessons of history have still not been learnt. Pushtuns and Balochs, not properly assimilated in the nationhood and denied due participation, are wreaking terrorism in this country. They refuse to accept the role of irregular gunrunners living in poverty and deprivation. .While the country faces disintegration; its army and ISI are engaged in launching terrorism in India with or without the knowledge of civilian administration. Not only that, during the recent meet of Foreign ministers of India and Pakistan , Qureshi adopted vain postures showing lack of commitment to the peace talks. Leaders of Pakistan do not refer to the internal strength of their country if any, for reason known to themselves but mostly refer to their country as a ‘hub of world power’ thereby trying to allure other countries for adventurism in the area that should be home to peace for progress and prosperity.

Jul 14, 2010

Conclude Afghanistan war in a tough manner

The nine year war to wipe out terrorism emanating from Afghanistan and adjoining tribal belt of Pakistan due to unlawful activities of al Qaeda and taliban has obviously not borne the desired results. Instead it has now been revealed that the said terrorist organizations have quickly spread their network over extraordinary large areas additionally getting criminals from different countries like David Coleman Headily absorbed into their cadres.

This increasingly menacing problem now requires the task of intelligence gatherings and sharing for taking coordinated action sharply to obviate terrorist attacks even all the more imperative.

But this should not deviate the US and NATO forces/ countries from concluding this war in a tough and ruthless manner so that the Taliban and al Qaeda menace does not raise its ugly head again. already illogical announcement of 'surge and exit' plan by the Obama administration and the recent disarray in war strategies contemplated by the White house strategists and differently perceived by the on the ground war generals that resulted in replacing Gen Mc crystal by Gen Petraeus has had the effect of emboldening the Taliban twice .First, wining side does not announce its exit plan without having defeated and undone the enemy. Second, wining armies do not undergo replacement of generals in the concluding stages of war, in the way this has been done .

These drawbacks have already shown their telling effects inside Afghanistan with marked deterioration in political scene adversely affecting US interests. Hamid Karzai who was till recently vowing to fight back the Talibans now appears in worrisome quest even for striking a power sharing deal with Taliban’s ready, for the said reason, to give political influence over his country to Pakistan. Reportedly with this objective in view. Pakistan army chief Chief kayani and Pakistan ISI chief Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha had a face to face meeting with Hamid Karzai. There are also reports that even Haqqani network operating across Pakistan borders in the adjoining areas of Afghanistan may also find a role. How US and NATO forces war objectives are being met is not at all clear .Talibans who never hesitate to break their pledges at the last moment may present a scary situation for the retreating US troops.

Sensing this changing scenario, Pakistan president has recently had talks with Chinese premier HU Jintao in Beijing for conducting feasibility talks for constructing a road from kashgar (in xinijang) to Hawelian in Pakistan through Karakorum that may shorten the entire distance to 750 km. Indian authorities see this as an increasingly military infrastructure not in the interest of peace for this region.

Further recently resignations of Bismullah khan , the chief of staff of afghan army and Arumullah Saleh , the head of afghan intelligence, both of them being non-pushtuns has created suspicion and resistance among the non-pashtun population of Afghanistan and Abdullah Abdullah has openly spoken of Afghanistan slipping into chaotic conditions of civil war witnessed in the early years of war, when Ahmad Shah Mehsud was fighting the talibans from northern alliance .

Regional powers like China, Iran , India and Russia are watching the situation with grave concerns .Some quarters in US and European countries are also eyeing the possibility of division of Afghanistan with Northern areas including Kabul under Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara (non-Pashtun) control while southern areas with Pashtun population and Taliban presence being stationed with US troops permanently.

Aghanistan has traditionally been the transit route for large armies and populations.Afghanistan divided population may now pave a similar path for emerging power of china desiring to march even in territories of Pakistan with similar intentions . Pakistan has already witnessed areas breaking up violently due to linguistic and ethnic faultlines resulting in formation of Bangladesh . Nobody can predict how the history of this region will be shaped in the regional power struggle.

India should therefore give up its weak foreign policy with subdued approaches with regard to Pakistan-Afghanistan problem and instead adopt a strong posture so that Pakistan does not stand as a wall to the legitimate global commercial and trade interests of India in Central Asia , West Asia and other parts of Mid East.
The article was published in website
http://english.samaylive.com/nation/articles/676468135.html

Pakistan to get F-16 with tough conditions

In an effort to intensify the fight against militants in the country's tribal regions bordering Afghanistan,the US will supply fighter aircraft to Pakistan.Blake said Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Toiba is emerging as a major threat and Pakistan would be asked to deal with it seriously..On the supply of arms by US to Pakistan, Blake said that military relationship between them has been changing and they are meant to deal with the challenges at the Afghanistan border.


“We have had a good dialogue with our Indian friends about this important matter. We assure our Indian friends that the arms sale to Pakistan, the character and the nature of our military relationship is really changing now in Pakistan,” said Blake.


The US will deliver 18 F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan by the end of this month under a series of tough conditions, including an assurance that Islamabad will not use the planes in any conflict with India.

This is the first time the US has publicly stated that it was taking steps to ensure that its military aid to Pakistan would not be used against India.

During last month's Strategic Dialogue between India and the US, Indian leaders had conveyed to their counterparts their concerns over the US military assistance to Pakistan.

Sources said the US Air Force personnel will arrive during the delivery of the F-16s and supervise not only the air base where they will be deployed but also the operations carried out by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Though the jets will be flown by PAF pilots, the logistics, management and control of the F-16s will be with the US personnel.

The Block 50/52 model F-16 jets equipped with latest missiles will arrive at the Shahbaz Airbase in Jacoabad in the last week of June, the sources said. India has been expressing concern over the United States decision to supply hi-tech weapons to Pakistan.

Military officials also pledged to upgrade the level of intelligence exchange between the two countries.United States Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Robert Blake had assured India that the supply of hi-tech weapons to Pakistan by the US is meant to deal with the challenges on the Afghanistan border.


India has put the blame on LeT terror outfits for the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks in which at least 166 people, including six Americans were killed

Expressing serious concern over the US government supplying new weapons to Pakistan, Defence Minister A.K. Antony on Saturday said that the US government has to ensure that these weapons should not reach in the hands of terrorists and be used against India.

Defense Minister said: “Latest decision of US to provide again sophisticated weapons to Pakistan is a matter of concerns to India. When the US Defence Secretary was here (in New Delhi) I actually had taken up the matter with him,” said A K Antony on the sidelines of function of Indian Coast Guard at Vizhinjam.

There have been reports that the US has cleared the supply of sophisticated laser-guided bomb kits, 12 surveillance drones and 18 F-16 fighters to enhance Pakistan military’s capability to strike at Taliban and al-Qaeda targets located in remote tribal areas of Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

There have been reports that the US has cleared the supply of sophisticated laser-guided bomb kits, 12 surveillance drones and 18 F-16 fighters to enhance Pakistan military’s capability to strike at Taliban and al-Qaeda targets located in remote tribal areas of Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Antony also said the United States must ensure that these arms being given to Pakistan are not used against India. Antony also said the United States must ensure that these arms being given to Pakistan are not used against India.

Indo-US strategic dialogue

The first India-US strategic dialogue is taking place amid the backdrop of incidents which see commonality of interests between the oldest and the largest democracies of the world. After the arrest of Pakistani American Faisal Shehzad, the Times Square bomb plotter, the US is not only talking tough, but has even warned Pakistan about taking stern action. Reports suggest that Washington is rehearsing for launching attacks against suspected terrorists and insurgents on Pakistani soil. This gives more room to India to make its point on the perils of the export of terror from Pakistan and further validates New Delhi 's grave concern over the supply of sophisticated US arms to Pakistan .

So, when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna meet in Washington on the 3rd June, this issue is likely to be discussed in great detail.
Analysts believes that Shehzad incident has been a real eye opener and a wake up call for the Obama administration to rethink and recalibrate its Pakistan policy.
Traditionally, the US has not paid much heed to India's consistent apprehensions over the issue of transnational terrorism emanating from Pakistan which the US always see as an bilateral tussle the two South Asian countries, but post Time Square incident, Pakistan's main donor United States had become much more cautious and vigilant in dealing with Islamabad.



The situation emerging in Afghanistan would also be a key discussion point in the first Indo-US strategic dialogue, the US had already hailed Indian efforts in capacity building and training of afghan security, but reconciliation and reintegration of Taliban has remained a major point of divergence between the two countries.
Any form of Taliban, good or bad, is opposed to India 's presence in Afghanistan and poses a potential danger to Indian interest. But the US, which has already lost more than thousand of its soldiers in the conflict, is working out an exit plan from the war-torn country is more than convinced that reconciliation with Taliban is the only way out and is fully supporting president Kazrai peace Jirgas initiative.
Krishna and his team will have to walk an extra mile to convince the US on this count. India has deep fears that any kind of reconciliation with the Hekamatyars and Haqqanis, which are supported by Pakistani covert agencies that could help the Taliban back to power and prove fatal for Indian interests and the huge investments India has made in the embattled country.
In fact, a certain section of United States , is also not very comfortable with Indian presence in Afghanistan . The US military commanders have voiced concern that muscle-flexing by India could provoke Pakistan and stir up regional tensions.



"Increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India ," wrote U.S. General Stanley McChrystal, who is in charge of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan , in a leaked assessment of the war last September.
India might not be a frontline military ally of US in the fight against terrorism but counter-terrorism is seen as an "urgent priority" matter by both the countries as it poses challenge to both India and the US . In fact cooperation in this aspect has intensified after Mumbai attacks, what signifies this this relationship is the fact that US has allowed India 's National Investigative agency to get access to 26/11 mastermind David Headley.
US India would also be discussing future strategy to evolve regional cooperation between India , Iran and Russia the idea that is often propounded by US and NATO countries.
Iran , which is at loggers head with US over its nuclear programme share warm and cosy relationship with India due to its deep civilization and cultural links. like US and India , Alike India and United States , Iran also have equal interest in decimating terrorism from Afghanistan .
Foreign Affairs expert Saeed Naqvi recently wrote, "Iranians had even more interest than the Americans to see the demise of both, Al Qaeda and Taleban. For the Iranians, this Salafi, anti Shia Islam would remain a thorn in their side unless the two were eliminated.
US officials have already stated that the main purpose of the Indo-US Strategic Dialogue to think strategically and not to focus much on "deliverables."

It was published on website http://english.samaylive.com/nation/articles/676464823.html