An “Accord” without any semblance of consensus

Without a consensus,or a semblance thereof,the fortnight-long climate change conference ended with an “Accord” that was almost never agreed by thr majority of attending countries,who only “took note” of the said document .As it turned out to be ,the document was a mere political statement that was legally non-binding.Oddly still the deal was struck by US President Obama seizing the last moments of the conference with the BASIC four-China,India,Brazil,South Africa and a group of influential countries.



Contrasting with the outcome, the climate negotiators were labouring tirelessly under two tracks viz ‘Kyoto Protocol’ and “long term cooperative Action (LAC)” that required the parties to produce legally binding treaty before the first commitment period of the Kyoto protocol ends in 2012 to fix the hazardous climate change .The previously mandated gas emission targets,ensuring commitments from rich nations on new or additional financial resources to fund adaptations and mitigations in developing countries,agreement over technology to developing countries, ambitions and binding targets for rich countries beyond 2012 did not find a place in the “Accord”. Instead rich countries will commit to provide US$ 30 billion for the period 2010-2012 for funding adaptation and mitigation efforts in the developing countries and that rich countries would set up a fund that would be able to provide US$ 100 billion per year after 2020.


But the most offending clause for developing countries ‘to allow international consultations and analysis under clearly defined guidelines on their domestic voluntary mitigation actions’ was incorporated.This could cause misunderstanding and misinterpretation in due course .


Indian Prime Minister participated in the closed door meeting with Obama and India ensured it would sign on the accord. Many of the African and Latin American countries were critical of the accord which had no reference to any targets for emission reductions by the rich countries.


Back home, the Accord was strongly criticized in parliament with Arun Jaitely saying “This Copenhagen Accord is a global disappointment, it is a betrayal of the poor and developing nations and a premium for the default of the developed countries”.Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh admitted to deviation in India’s stand that had been insisting on finance and technology being made available by rich countries in order to take on major reductions in green house gas emissions .,

Likewise the consept of ‘Peak Year’ came in for strong criticism.To sum up the Accord only shows the way forward with much desired to be achieved in future meetings of the Copenhagen style conferences.

Further splintering of states--a political agenda

As the Congress bosses in Delhi were busy promoting the weak leadership of K Rosaiah in Andhra Pradesh (after the death of former Chief minister YSR),it provided an ample room to KCR of Telangana Rashtra Samiti to vigorously pursue his long pending demand for creation of a separate Telangana state by undertaking a fast unto death .With the fasting leader’s health suddenly deteriorating ,the centre guardedly agreed to the demand of bifurcation of Andhra state subject to state Assembly passing a resolution for creation of a separate Telangana.

Soon the state was plunged into utter chaos and, as the matters stand today,the status of more than 130 MLAs from Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra ,who submitted their resignations against the creation of a Telangana state,remains uncertain.Later with Andhra Assembly adjourned sine die and the centre leaving the issue to the state itself,the bifurcation issue has been put on the back burner..


But as a side effect of these happenings ,KCR’s son Tarakarama Rao has also prominently emerged on the political horizon of the state.

The issue of bifurcation prominently brings forth wider implications both at the State and national level that need deep study and appropriate action.

The Andhra’s Capital city of Hyderabad has already acquired a cosmopolitan status being a hub on international IT map,high growth of Real Estatae and location for a number of central defence and civil offices.Resulatantly the people of Rayalaseema and coastal regions have been seen as seriously resisting the merger of this city with the Telangana State though the city geographically and historically squarely falls in the Telangana region.From a reverse view,the merger of Hyderabad with the backward state of Telangana may dim the future growth of this city itself.A mechanism to promote the economic interests of the Telangana region could be a way out of the problem of division of the state of Andhra Pradesh .

At the national level various political parties have suddenly started a chorus for the creation of a number of smaller states stressing the development and regional interests of the concerned areas.Mayawati who otherwise comfortably rules the state of UP with an absolute majority still has written to the Prime Minister for four states to be carved out of Uttar Pradesh to speed up the development of this otherwise neglected and economically backward state.This move diminishes the political impact of development efforts recently launched by Congress led UPA government in the Bundelkhand area of UP.Creation of Gorkhaland for the Darjeeling and its adjoining areas alienated from the rest of Bengal both culturally and geographically raised by the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha.Since a mumber of years also resonates across the country.Similarly demands are being raised for bifurcation of Maharashtra and lately even of bihar.Statehoods are now being sought on the key issues of development and administrative imperatives.But raising the demands for division of states is primarily a political agenda.

Clinching the Statehood unilaterally

The Mid-East “peace process” continues to drag endlessly for decades. A bitter sense of desperation has already overtaken the prolonged frustration of Palestinians over non-realization of statehood for their territories. They have now begun to think radically for a unilateral declaration of a state of Palestine and seek recognition by the UN.


Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbbas thus disappointed over this has already declared on November 5,2009 that he would not seek re-election in general and presidential polls due in January next year. Likewise chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat recently declared in Ramallah “We have reached a decision to go to the United Nations Security Council to ask for recognition of an independent Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its capital and with June 1967 borders” adding “We are going to seek support from European Union countries and Russia and other countries.”

Commenting in a similar vein, Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad said “I know some people are concerned that this is unilateral but it seems to me that it is unilateral in a healthy sense of self development”. Elucidating further he remarked that it was the responsibility of Palestinian Authority to lay the ground work of statehood while it is upto Palestinian Liberation Organization to actually declare the state when conditions are right.

Hawkish Israeli Premier Netanyahu though issuing a stern warning of Israeli one-sided response to such a move simultaneously emphasized that path to peace was at the negotiation table adding negotiations must begin “ at once and in good faith”.But at the same time he remains unrelenting to a Palestinian demand to freeze all construction activity in the West Bank as a pre–condition to kick start stalled peace process.


The confrontation that thus persists can get worse any time. Israel’s ‘War Crimes’ in Gaza are already with the UN,four million people living in the West Bank and Gaza strip are to this day deprived of their most basic human rights.Jewish settlements expansion in East Jerusalem continues unabted in spite of US “dismay”.Such confrontational situations can anytime degenerate into armed struggle deteriorating further into a war over unilateral declaration of statehood. US, being already tied with uneasy situations in Afghanistan,Pakistan and Iraq,must effectively prevail over Israel to implement the ‘peace process’ urgently for creation of the state of Palestine.


Memories of Nazis’ atrocities though deeply etched on the Jewish psyche, do not appear to stir their feelings and enlighten their vision to live in harmony with others especially in their neighbourhood.

Helpless US President Barack Hussein Obama!

Not without reasons President Barack Obama sheds in part his US leadership role of South Asia for China.With an economy in recession and financial system in tatters, US owes China trillions of dollars that the latter holds in Treasury bonds .Furthermore, having acquired an insider vision in the financial system,China threatens to damage the dollar’s imperialistic sways by floating SDR (Special Drawing Rights) and alternative basket of currencies.

But the US misses the crucial point .It has actually been nailed down in South and West Asia.In Iraq, Afghanistan and Af-Pak region, owing to its erroneous appreciation and lack of knowledge of Topography, traditional cultures ,regional environs and war scenarios of the involved area of operation .Further, the military operations were carried out ineptly without properly setting out aims and goals in a clear manner .Also US was wooed deceitfully by Pakistan to lead the operations to Afghanistan through a lawless tribal area (FATA) inhabited by Pashtuns having historical and strong ethnic ties with the Pashtun population of Afghanistan on the other side of the Durrand Line.There was thus an all round failure of military and political leaders of wars that were picked up haphazardly.

Nuclear talks at final stages

After the UN-drafted nuclear deal mainly clears the deadlock over Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme ,the focus of talks has shifted to the negotiations and discussion over further enrichment of the 1200 kg of low enriched uranium for turning it into nuclear fuel for reactor in Tehran.According to the draft-deal Iran would send most of its low enriched uranium abroad by the end of the year for further enrichment to turn it into fuel.

This has created deep misgivings in Iran over parting with the bulk of its Low enriched uranium for want of guarantee for the return of nuclear fuel and other concerns.Iranian Ambassador to IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh stressing the need for more talks says “ in order to ensure that our technical concerns and especially the issue of the guarantee of the fuel supply, are taken into consideration”,We are ready for the next round of technical discussions at the IAEA headquarters.

Already President Ahmadinejad speaking on another occasion deplored the western governments for failing to fulfill their earlier contracts saying “We expect the western governments to fulfill their commitments.There are contracts whose costs we have paid thirty years .These and earlier contracts should be implemented”.

With regard to IAEA proposals that entails further enrichment of low enrichment uranium abroad at Russia or Turkey ,Tehran has made a proposal that calls for international arms inspectors to take custody of much of their fuel ,but keep it on Kish,a Persian Gulf resort island that is a part of Iran .Russian ambassador in Iran Alexander Sadovinko called for “rapid settlement of Iran’s nuclear issue as a matter of importance for the security and stability of the region and contributing to the regional peace.”The Tehran Research Reactor is used for the purpose of producing radio isotopes to be used in cancer treatment by over 200 hospitals in Iran.

Iranian Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh stressed that IAEA is obliged to carry out the task of supplying nuclear fuel based on clauses I and II of its charter adding that “We are ready to purchase our required fuel under supervision of IAEA in the same method that we had already purchased it from Argentina 30 years ago”.

As Obama’s administration prepares to tackle Afghanistan and Iraq issue on priority basis an early finalization of Iran’s nuclear issue with regard to its final nitty-gritty mechanism appears to be in sight.

History haunts normalization process

As Turkey and Armenia take steps to normalize their relations ,century old bitter memories around killings of hundred of thousands of Armenians by the Ottoman Troops in 1915 World War I continues to haunt the process of normalization..

Armenians have all along been struggling to get these largescale killings recognized internationally as genocide and more than 20 countries have done so. But Turkey though admitting that many Armenians were killed,denies any genocide holding that these were part of widespread fighting during the World War .Armenians on the other hand claim these deaths as genocide since they were deported en masse from eastern Anatolia to the Syrian desert and elsewhere and died from starvation or disease as well as killed by the troops.

The agreement envisaging the process of normalization was signed in Zurich, Switzerland on 11 October 2009 after months of Swiss-mediated talks in a ceremony attended by US Secretary of Statae Hillary Clinton,Russian and French Foreign Ministers and Javier Solana from the European Union.The agreement that still needs parliamentary approval in Turkey and Armenia,also calls for a joint commission of independent historians to study the genocide issue.

Several thousand people protested in Armenian capital Yerevan,saying that Turkey should recognize the 1915 killingsas genocide before ties are restored with Vahan Hovanissyan,a member of Parliament contending that “ The international recognition of the Armenian genocide will be hindered by this signature or ratification’.

Another aspect of this agreement allows the opening of the shared border between he two countries that was closed by Turkey in 1993 because of its war with Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno- Karabakh and the Armenians seem to feel their country has been too isolated since the Turkish border closed in 1993 and are therefore ready for it to reopen. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's commented that "We want all the borders to be opened at the same time..., but as long as Armenia has not withdrawn from Azerbaijani territory that it is occupying, Turkey cannot have a positive attitude on this subject."

Congress-TMC alliance under strain

Minor incidents unless properly handled in time can soon develop into serious dissensions that may be difficult to reconcile.Congress-TMC alliance that trounced the left in Lok Sabha polls and more recently won the siliguri civic elections after a spell of 28 years suddenly came under a strain, as the congress grabbed the siliguri mayor’s post by ensuring the support of the left parties. There was a deadlock in the talks to the said post between the congress and the TMC, as the former claimed better performance in the civic body elections.

The left leadership rejoiced by driving a wedge between Congress and TMC that could crack their poll alliance, and benefit the left in the next year’s civic polls which include the kolkata Municipal Corporation and the 2011 assembly elections.


The poll alliance had created a win-win situation for both the Congress and the TMC but now both could lose considerably by the current Siliguri episode.

This development could even signal a state of flux in the West Bengal politics that could not rule out political re alignment before 2011 assembly elections, unless TMC yields due political space for the congress party in its own self interest.

With Mamata Banerjee alleging that this “tie up” was scripted at the congress High command level in New Delhi, the implications were quite serious though she ruled out at the centre.

The break up of the Congress-TMC poll alliance before 2011assembly elections would do little service to the state of West Bengal having been pushed into utter industrial backwardness under the left rule and perceptions of tyrannical behaviour of the CPM cadres harboured by the people.However a strong message sent by the Congress to the TMC seeking due political space for the national party may impart wisdom and rather strengthen the poll alliance

US-Iran nuclear talks

The most crucial talks between P5+1 and Iran scheduled October 1st,2009 over the latter’s uranium enrichment issue that if amicably resolved could have the potential of restoring US-Iran relations with mutual trust besides having salutary effect in areas comprising Afghanistan and Mid-east, will be watched with great interest. More so, when Obama during his race to the presidency had famously pronounced that he would be willing to hold direct talk, without preconditions ,with the President of Iran.The issue centers around US and big powers asking Iran to abandon its “undeniable legal and definitive rights to enrich uranium” since specified quantities of such enriched uranium could be (and are suspected by them as) connected to nuclear weaponisation program that endangers the security of US and its European allies, as Iran is also suspected to be pursuing a program of acquiring long range ballistic missiles.Iran has adamantly refused to abandon its right to uranium enrichment persistently declaring that the said program is solely connected to the country’s dedication to its civilian development efforts.Numerous economic sanctions imposed on Iran have thus failed to deter it on its course and the issue remained unresolved . Now prior to the current scheduled talks to be held on October 1,2009, Iran has firmly ruled out any negotiations over its nuclear rights and has instead handed over a five page proposal to the big powers showing Tehran’s willingness to discuss global nuclear disarmament as well as other international issues to resolve economic and security issues so as to bring in the much needed element of trust. Though US has agreed reluctantly to bring in the issues raised by Iran in the impending talks ,with White house spokesman Robert Gibbs stating that “this may not have been a topic that they (US) wanted to be brought up but I can assure that it is a topic that we will bring up”.Thus the matter boils down to spreading environment of trust and cooperation with each side willing and ready to recognize and accommodate each other policy goals.Israel factor by implication is playing the spoiler in bringing about a salutary change in the mid east region.The occupation consequent upon 1967 six days war has been unduly prolonged and disintegration of Palestinian society is not being curtailed.It is time that US prevail upon Israel to urgently address the peace process by implementing the two-nation solution in an amicable and accommodating manner.A mechanism by the involved countries and the IAEA to ensure hat Iran’s nuclear program meticulously adheres to civilian activity for peaceful purpose could not be beyond the ingenuity of the concerned players .If Obama has successfully “re-set” US-Russia relations there can be no reason that US-Iran relations cannot be restored in a similar manner.Iran-Pakistan_India gas pipeline has virtually been a hostage to security concerns of this region, as the current situation virtually denies Iran its due role in the area.This in a way also hinders economic progress and integration of various nations in the SAARC region.

BJP in retrograde

Though the BJP leadership was visibly falling apart even during the course of elections,it was only the poll debacle that brought out prominently its ugly face in full public view.Without serving any show cause notice ,Jaswant Singh having thirty years of association with the party was expelled from the organization for launching his book Jinnnah:India-partition-Independence.Sensing himself next in the line of fire, Arun Shourie lost no time in making the most damaging diatribe against the entire top brass of the party,simultaneously describing the party as ‘Kati Patang’ that had lost all sense of direction and calling upon the RSS to virtually take over BJP for an overhaul of its leadership.The party was accused of fostering a group of mutually projected and mutually protected individuals who had no following worth the name with the masses.At the heart of all this was an ongoing struggle between leaders who provided council to Vajpayee during his tenure as PM for giving a shape and direction to the foreign policy,matters of economic sense as well as chart India’s place in the world order against such leaders who had wrested control of the organization supported by well entrenched factions statedly linked to certain quarters in the RSS.It was in view of this drift that Advani was upped by his supporters as “Lau Purush” presumably in the context of Kandahar episode for his having not concurred in the handing over of terrorists.Though this is now contested by other members of the party.The sidelining of said leaders in the poll process was quite conspicuous .Though this in a way dented the liberal and moderate image acquired during the Vajpayee era and eventually dented the poll prospects of the party to some extent.But soon the party was drifting back to a more hardline approach .Kalyan Singh having a backward class following in Uttar Pradesh was eased out of the party during the course of elections..Varun Gandhi’s most offensive utterances that could inflame communal tensions were not checked.Narendra Modi with a controversial image was projected as future Prime Minister for 2014.In the context of congress then desparately trying to wrest its spacefrom its regional allies and left parties moving away.to the third front,the BJP grew arrogant and snapped its time -tested poll alliance with the Biju Janta Dal that cost it heavily in the poll results.In a sort of power struggle within the party,difficulties were created at organization level for their own Chief ministers in the poll process.Eventually a ‘sure’poll victory gave way to a stunning defeat and the prestige of the leaders suffered.The fiasco could have been avoided if the party had not abandoned internal democracy and issues had been settled through internal debate.After the poll defeat,the sidelined leaders were naturally clamouring for causes of poll defeat and protested that defaulters were being rewarded with plum positions in the organization.The party would therefore have to turn over a new leaf and undergo a change in view of changing global scenario where jobs are going global,businesses are run by multinational companies and world problems are sorted out through diplomacy.With fifty percent of Indian population coming under the age group of below 25 years of age it may not be possible to hold back the people to an old fossilized mind-set.The party may manage to come to power in some states by setting a matrix of castes,groups and communities peculiar to specific states but coming to power at the centre would not be possible with outdated ideas or concepts.It may no longer be possible to win elections by resorting to ‘Rathyatras’, ‘Hindutva’ and ‘Ram Mandir’ which might have once propelled it to power at the centre.The happenings in the party are not so far indicative of any change with regard to its work-culture or policy approach to various problems facing the country and the people may yet only be watching the superficial twists and turns within the organization.

Reference of Balochistan at Sharm el-Sheikh--a diplomatic blunder

Stunned at the blunder on the part of our diplomatic team headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh over mention of Balochistan as a spot of external interference in the “Indo-Pak joint statement in Sharm el-Sheikh ”. Congress party lost no time in distancing itself from the line taken by government. The four day long spell of silence in this matter was ultimately broken by party General Secretary Janardan Dwivedi saying that PM would clarify and correct the position on Balochistan and delinking between Pakistan’s action on terror and resumption of composite dialogue while addressing both houses of parliament on 29th of July. Because of this new insertion, the Balochistan issue will henceforth continue to reverberate in all the fora dealing with terrorism between the two countries and significantly drag India to disadvantageous positions. Even Ashfaque Kayani Pakistan Army chief has now sought to link Pakistan’s action against Lashkar-e-Taiba with India putting a stop to its covert operations in Balochistan. Richard Holbrooke US special envoy for Afghanistan-Pakistan has also now statedly asked Indian interlocutors whether India would stop its activities in Balochistan. Trying to hide this blunder behind words and arguments on the part of government can now serve no purpose while party will suffer in public estimation. India has squandered the advantage of an edge it so far possessed over Pakistan and has instead returned carrying a load of rendering classification and explanation about things it has nothing to do with and losing its face into the bargain. While Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani declared this as his diplomatic victory over India,our government continues to justify its action on terms of achieving peace and prosperity in the region. It is time we stop confusing the real issue by clinging to matters which are of the same import to both the countries. Diplomatic battles with the country having a definite clash of interest with us have to be scrupulously won even by engaging sharpest of minds in our diplomatic teams, lest we so damage our interests that our posterity pays dearly for our lapses. Another word of caution ,shed the big brother mentality realizing that this fact always existed earlier but our country was at times ravaged whenever we engaged complacently .Referring to past lapses by governments of other parties or alliances in fact betrays our sense of evading the real issues.