New Delhi: The Twin conferences first held in Istanbul ( on 26th January) and the second held later in London (on 28th January) in order to tackle the fast deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, as well as in Pakistan (both clubbed together as Af-Pak area by US strategists and war commanders in view of their intricate and mutually exacerbating Taliban menace), have failed to make any positive impact with some of the NATO countries themselves already doubtful of the outcome. Though the area, in question, was immediately adjacent to Iran on the west and India on the East, these conferences did not even attempt to address the concerns of both these countries. Ironically the said terrorism has not only been spilling over in both the said countries but these are being also targeted by terrorists to disrupt their governmental and financial activities. Strange though it may appear, India was specifically excluded from the Istanbul Conference (though now regretted by the host government of turkey) and Iran did not attend the London conference, as the text of agreement was allegedly prepared beforehand by the numerically dominating countries though their distant concerns could hardly outweigh the concerns of India and Iran.
The declared time of US quitting military action in Afghanistan by July 31, 2011 and the strategy laid down in London Conference of stitching up a political reconciliation with moderate Talibans and integrating them in government administration along with tribal chiefs and even some of warlord's looks puzzling. How could this change the economic conditions of Afghans and transform the society away from extremism. Thus situation may soon lurch towards terrorism.
Thus emboldened, the Taliban and LeT outfits in Pakistan along with roguish elements in Pakistan army, ISI as well as civilian administration have overshadowed the India-Pak peace talks even though Pakistan is being driven to the edge of instability by repeated terrorist attacks in its financial capital of Karachi and in other places across the country. Awakened to a sense of security concern for the area, Iran has vocally come out in favour of these talks ready to facilitate a positive outcome. The government in Pakistan should also deal ruthlessly with the situation, as the state of Pakistan is also under serious threat with consequences that may be difficult to assess in their volatile situation.
Iran has thus come out strongly against the US exit strategy with Iran's envoy Seyed Mehdi Nabizadeh saying on the occasion of the 31st anniversary of Islamic Revolution in Iran that "We don't believe in good or bad Taliban" adding that "From 2001, foreign forces have been in Afghanistan with three aims: stop growing narcotics, fight terror and establish security in the region and none of these have been realized". According to his views the neighbouring countries "were duty-bound to provide peace and stability in Afghanistan. The "US surge operations" planning drone attacks in Pakistan tribal area may only prove to be a cover for US and NATO forces to retreat without harassment by the Taliban.
The Obama administration and its Afghan allies are thus now mainly focused on exploiting the fissures between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, as new details have emerged about the tense relationship between the two networks. Besides, according to the US approach, ideological and personality differences markedly exist between the two. While Taliban is an indigenous movement composed mostly of ethnic Pashtuns focused on power in their homebase in Afghanistan and across the border in Pakistan, the Al-Qaeda leadership is almost entirely Arab and the outfit is fighting a global struggle for supremacy and security of islam. How this difference will ultimately unfold is yet unpredictable. But it clearly shows that in the concluding stage of US intervention in Afghanistan, the US action is mainly Al-Qaeda centre that concerns terrorist attacks across the globe endangering US interests. And the Taliban may be seriously seeking the destruction of the state of Pakistan.
A regional framework by involving India, Iran, China and Russia to ensure stability in this area in the long- run may prove to be a dire necessity. Hints to this effect had already been dropped by Obama while finalizing a "re-set" of relationship with Russia and later seeking China to share partly the burden of South Asia. As the situation may undergo a sea change, it may be better to engage also with South Korea and Japan and adopt a constructive approach to the situation that may be in the largest interest of Asia.
Feb 1, 2010
Stability in Afghanistan essential for South Asia
Published: Tue, 16 Dec 2008
Bush administration’s strategy in allying Pakistan in its Afghanistan war against Taliban regime was greatly flawed.The strategy was adopted in view of unique geographical location of Pakistan that provided all the land routes to the eastern borders of the landlocked country.
Western borders of Afghanistan faced Iran, which had snapped diplomatic relations with US since the days of Islamic revolution in the year 1978 and US embassy hostage issue of 1979, that barred any action in executing the said war. But the strategy adopted failed to take notice of the fact that all these supply routes ran through the tribal belt of Pakistan infested with militants having deep ethnic,linguistic and cultural links and ties with the pashtun population of Afghanistan. Moreover they had a culture of hate against all foreigners and had a tradition of looting and hijacking the supplies along with transports. The main supply route from Peshawar to Kabul falls in the lawless Khyber agency area till it crosses the border at Torkham .The other main land route runs through the border town of Chaman to the south Afghan city of Kandahar. In addition to its intense ethnic, cultural and linguistic links, an extreme type of Sunni fundamentalism was promoted in this area thanks to a strategy promoted by former military ruler Zia-ul-Haq who worked out a policy of waging a proxy against India through acts of terrorism. These tribal areas also known as Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA) are actually administered through various agencies and and continue to remain outside the law and order administration of Pakistan though they remain within the sovereign territories of Pakistan .Even the Pakistan authorities during disturbed times transport their supplies through these routes in convoys under armed escorts.
Moreover the Taliban flourish only in the pashtun areas of Afghanistan had greater affinity with them than the non-Pastun population of Pakistan itself. Pakistani authorities therefore could hardly be of any significant help in the US war effort against Taliban.Instead this tribal area was in fact more prone to become a part of the problem. Eventually this area saw the rise of Pakistani Taliban’s that added yet another dimension to the Afghan war . In the wake of September 11,2001 US attack on Taliban regime in Afghanistan territory, a substantial number of tajiks,Chechans and Arab fighters crossed over to Pakistan tribal areas.Suddenly local tribal fighters who had earlier taken part in the Afghan resistance against the soviets also joined them that swelled their ranks substantially and the Taliban spread extensively through the tribal belt .initially these Talibans staged daring cross-border attacks on the US led forces in Afghanistan on “hit and run” basis.But now they are carrying out major operations while staying in Afghanistan under a dreaded commander Baitullah Mahsud. General Musharraf in fact allied with US efforts in Afghanistan on the spur of the moment in order to tighten his grip on Pakistan .He also needed American financial assistance .Besides he sensed an opportunity of cornering a sizeable quantity of US arms to be used against India.His dubious role was later much criticized in US media. As was revealed during last days of his regime, Pakistan Taliban Movement actually advanced deeply into Pakistan itself up to its capital city of Islamabad resulting in the Lal Masjid episode and later executing terrorists attacks in various cities of Pakistan. Pakistan President Zardari recently rightly concluded that real danger to Pakistan does not come from India but from the Taliban attacks within the country.Taliban in a way also represents sub-Nationalism of Pashtun ethnic group and appears intent on laying bare the ethnic faultlines of Pakistan that may destroy the state itself.
With Obama declaring that his administration will not hesitate to strongly pursue and eliminate al-Qaeda and Taliban hiding in tribal areas of Pakistan,Muller who is overseeing an “Afghanistan and Pakistan transition strategy” at the Pentagon, is redrawing the map of the ‘Afghanistan battle space’ that would also include the tribal region of western Pakistan. Forceful messages have already been delivered to Pakistan officials to step up attacks against Taliban and Al-Qaeda sanctuaries in their territories
Bush administration’s strategy in allying Pakistan in its Afghanistan war against Taliban regime was greatly flawed.The strategy was adopted in view of unique geographical location of Pakistan that provided all the land routes to the eastern borders of the landlocked country.
Western borders of Afghanistan faced Iran, which had snapped diplomatic relations with US since the days of Islamic revolution in the year 1978 and US embassy hostage issue of 1979, that barred any action in executing the said war. But the strategy adopted failed to take notice of the fact that all these supply routes ran through the tribal belt of Pakistan infested with militants having deep ethnic,linguistic and cultural links and ties with the pashtun population of Afghanistan. Moreover they had a culture of hate against all foreigners and had a tradition of looting and hijacking the supplies along with transports. The main supply route from Peshawar to Kabul falls in the lawless Khyber agency area till it crosses the border at Torkham .The other main land route runs through the border town of Chaman to the south Afghan city of Kandahar. In addition to its intense ethnic, cultural and linguistic links, an extreme type of Sunni fundamentalism was promoted in this area thanks to a strategy promoted by former military ruler Zia-ul-Haq who worked out a policy of waging a proxy against India through acts of terrorism. These tribal areas also known as Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA) are actually administered through various agencies and and continue to remain outside the law and order administration of Pakistan though they remain within the sovereign territories of Pakistan .Even the Pakistan authorities during disturbed times transport their supplies through these routes in convoys under armed escorts.
Moreover the Taliban flourish only in the pashtun areas of Afghanistan had greater affinity with them than the non-Pastun population of Pakistan itself. Pakistani authorities therefore could hardly be of any significant help in the US war effort against Taliban.Instead this tribal area was in fact more prone to become a part of the problem. Eventually this area saw the rise of Pakistani Taliban’s that added yet another dimension to the Afghan war . In the wake of September 11,2001 US attack on Taliban regime in Afghanistan territory, a substantial number of tajiks,Chechans and Arab fighters crossed over to Pakistan tribal areas.Suddenly local tribal fighters who had earlier taken part in the Afghan resistance against the soviets also joined them that swelled their ranks substantially and the Taliban spread extensively through the tribal belt .initially these Talibans staged daring cross-border attacks on the US led forces in Afghanistan on “hit and run” basis.But now they are carrying out major operations while staying in Afghanistan under a dreaded commander Baitullah Mahsud. General Musharraf in fact allied with US efforts in Afghanistan on the spur of the moment in order to tighten his grip on Pakistan .He also needed American financial assistance .Besides he sensed an opportunity of cornering a sizeable quantity of US arms to be used against India.His dubious role was later much criticized in US media. As was revealed during last days of his regime, Pakistan Taliban Movement actually advanced deeply into Pakistan itself up to its capital city of Islamabad resulting in the Lal Masjid episode and later executing terrorists attacks in various cities of Pakistan. Pakistan President Zardari recently rightly concluded that real danger to Pakistan does not come from India but from the Taliban attacks within the country.Taliban in a way also represents sub-Nationalism of Pashtun ethnic group and appears intent on laying bare the ethnic faultlines of Pakistan that may destroy the state itself.
With Obama declaring that his administration will not hesitate to strongly pursue and eliminate al-Qaeda and Taliban hiding in tribal areas of Pakistan,Muller who is overseeing an “Afghanistan and Pakistan transition strategy” at the Pentagon, is redrawing the map of the ‘Afghanistan battle space’ that would also include the tribal region of western Pakistan. Forceful messages have already been delivered to Pakistan officials to step up attacks against Taliban and Al-Qaeda sanctuaries in their territories
Elections under economic gloom---a changing political scenario
The timing of the general elections commencing 16th April 2009 has left both the congress and the BJP worrying. Congress finds itself slipping significantly on the number game at the polls thanks to economic gloom, vanishing jobs and the prevailing sense of lax internal security in the context of Mumbai blasts.The return of the Hindutva agenda in the BJP,finds its alliance partners distancing themselves away from it to keep their secular credentials intact. Sensing that the congress –led alliance may not make up to the magic number of 272 to occupy the seat of power in New Delhi, its alliance partners are desperately trying to enhance their own number so that they could play their game ,should any other conglomerate appear successful in a bid for power after the elections. Congress on its part is trying hard not to cede any extra seat to its partners, lest it may be seen as a shrinking party in the countrywide context besides somewhat losing its dominant position as a single party. Electoral understanding or pacts between the congress and its alliance partners with regard to seat sharing are therefore under severe threat. The emergence of a “third front “swearing by secular credentials has further complicated the matters for congress. Various alliance partners appear intent on enhancing their share within their respective state as well as in other states of their influence. Some alliance partners like Sharad pawar,Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Yadav are even in contact between themselves as well as with leaders of other parties outside the UPA so that they could later play their games even after breaking ranks with the UPA. Prominent among them Sharad Pawar acting shrewdly has even warned congress that non-congress parties have made overtures to NCP for alliances in other states.Citing the examples of TDP in Andhra Pradesh,some parties in Tamil Nadu, North-east and Orissa, he is pressing congress to cede seats to NCP in other states. He is also rumoured to be in contact with Shiv Sena.Riding the Maharashtra feelings though stirred by Raj Thackeray recently,he even harbours ambitions to occupy the seat of power in New Delhi. In the politically crucial state of UP, Mayawati factor based on a concept of “Social Engineering” with Dalit-Brahmin vote bank and also exercising considerable influence over Muslim votes ,looms large both against congress-SP tie up as well as BJP.Countering this,Mulayam Singh Yadav has tied up with the BJP rebel Kalyan Singh who weilds much influence in a number of UP districts dominated by his community.BJP on its part has concluded a pact with Jat dominated RLD led by Ajit Singh who holds considerable sway in western UP .But as an odd and adverse factor,the seat-sharing arrangement between congress and SP is under considerable strain and the stalemate continues with SP not willing to cede more than 17 seats to congress against its demand of 25 seats.Lately the negotiations within different parties have turned so fiercethat it has resulted in Naveen Patnaik’s BJD walking out of its ten year old alliance with BJP and instead stitching an alliance with CPM,CPI,JMM and NCP,while Mulayam Singh has taken a still tough position by leaving only six seats for the Congress . In Andhra Pradesh,Satyam/Maytas episode may mar congress prospects with Naidu raising a high pitch against the congress Chief Minister for his alleged involvement in the irregularities concerning the said companies .While in Tamil Nadu ultimate handling of Tamil civilians by Sri Lanka government of the island nation may effect the fortunes of various parties in a most unpredictable manner .Left parties openly supporting the third front or some other alternative of secular credentials also does not bode well for congress.In West Bengal,it is still unclear as to how much congress will benefit due to Mamta-Congress tie-up .In Assam BJP and AGP have sealed a pre-poll pact whereby BJP will contest eight seats leaving six for the AGP to ensure that anti-Congress vote is not divided that may present a stiff challenge to the congress This appears to be a time of shifting of votes and loyalties.There can be a likelihood of fragmented mandate which may bring in the days of changing coalitions.
Updated : Saturday, 28 Mar 2009, 11:46 [IST]
Updated : Saturday, 28 Mar 2009, 11:46 [IST]
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