The timing of the general elections commencing 16th April 2009 has left both the congress and the BJP worrying. Congress finds itself slipping significantly on the number game at the polls thanks to economic gloom, vanishing jobs and the prevailing sense of lax internal security in the context of Mumbai blasts.The return of the Hindutva agenda in the BJP,finds its alliance partners distancing themselves away from it to keep their secular credentials intact. Sensing that the congress –led alliance may not make up to the magic number of 272 to occupy the seat of power in New Delhi, its alliance partners are desperately trying to enhance their own number so that they could play their game ,should any other conglomerate appear successful in a bid for power after the elections. Congress on its part is trying hard not to cede any extra seat to its partners, lest it may be seen as a shrinking party in the countrywide context besides somewhat losing its dominant position as a single party. Electoral understanding or pacts between the congress and its alliance partners with regard to seat sharing are therefore under severe threat. The emergence of a “third front “swearing by secular credentials has further complicated the matters for congress. Various alliance partners appear intent on enhancing their share within their respective state as well as in other states of their influence. Some alliance partners like Sharad pawar,Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Yadav are even in contact between themselves as well as with leaders of other parties outside the UPA so that they could later play their games even after breaking ranks with the UPA. Prominent among them Sharad Pawar acting shrewdly has even warned congress that non-congress parties have made overtures to NCP for alliances in other states.Citing the examples of TDP in Andhra Pradesh,some parties in Tamil Nadu, North-east and Orissa, he is pressing congress to cede seats to NCP in other states. He is also rumoured to be in contact with Shiv Sena.Riding the Maharashtra feelings though stirred by Raj Thackeray recently,he even harbours ambitions to occupy the seat of power in New Delhi. In the politically crucial state of UP, Mayawati factor based on a concept of “Social Engineering” with Dalit-Brahmin vote bank and also exercising considerable influence over Muslim votes ,looms large both against congress-SP tie up as well as BJP.Countering this,Mulayam Singh Yadav has tied up with the BJP rebel Kalyan Singh who weilds much influence in a number of UP districts dominated by his community.BJP on its part has concluded a pact with Jat dominated RLD led by Ajit Singh who holds considerable sway in western UP .But as an odd and adverse factor,the seat-sharing arrangement between congress and SP is under considerable strain and the stalemate continues with SP not willing to cede more than 17 seats to congress against its demand of 25 seats.Lately the negotiations within different parties have turned so fiercethat it has resulted in Naveen Patnaik’s BJD walking out of its ten year old alliance with BJP and instead stitching an alliance with CPM,CPI,JMM and NCP,while Mulayam Singh has taken a still tough position by leaving only six seats for the Congress . In Andhra Pradesh,Satyam/Maytas episode may mar congress prospects with Naidu raising a high pitch against the congress Chief Minister for his alleged involvement in the irregularities concerning the said companies .While in Tamil Nadu ultimate handling of Tamil civilians by Sri Lanka government of the island nation may effect the fortunes of various parties in a most unpredictable manner .Left parties openly supporting the third front or some other alternative of secular credentials also does not bode well for congress.In West Bengal,it is still unclear as to how much congress will benefit due to Mamta-Congress tie-up .In Assam BJP and AGP have sealed a pre-poll pact whereby BJP will contest eight seats leaving six for the AGP to ensure that anti-Congress vote is not divided that may present a stiff challenge to the congress This appears to be a time of shifting of votes and loyalties.There can be a likelihood of fragmented mandate which may bring in the days of changing coalitions.
Updated : Saturday, 28 Mar 2009, 11:46 [IST]
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