The nuclear stand off between US and North Korea has risen to an utterly tense situation.At the centre of the worsening situation is the ultimatum served by North Korea to the South Korea to evacuate the foreigners by April 10,2013, with a simultaneous warning that a failure to do so may lead to a "thermo nuclear" war.
A still bold threat of a pre emptive attack on US has also been held out, since United States has massive military build up in its bases located in South Korea and Japan.
Further,US troops after its disastrous war in Iraq and Afghanistan are to be shifted to these bases as per US policy of shifting its "pivot" to Asia pacific region and to augment its South China Sea intent of propping up the littoral states of phillipines, China, japan,Vietnam etc ,considering the newly assertive stance of the China that claims over -all political dominance in the sea.
Though the chances of war-like conflict breaking out in the region appear rather remote in view of the utter lack of military and logistic support of the North Korean capabilities but according to Darry Kimball, executive director of the Arms control Association,"North Korea might be able to put a warhead on a Nodong missile but he sees it as unlikely adding that North's nuclear threats are less worthy of attention than the prospects of a miscalculation leading to a conventional war."
In the event of the unleashing of a conventional war,US will overwhelmingly retaliate with its immense military resources.Japan may also be prompted to give up its pacifist constitution imposed by US after the conclusion of World War II and aggressively change its foreign policy and military postures in the region.
As an assessment of the ploy of threat posed by the North Korea most experts consider it as an attempt by Kim Jong Un to establish his political domestic leadership in view of economic conditions prevailing in his famished country.
Since after his ascendance as dictator of North Korea in December 2011,after the death of his father Kim JongII,Kim Jong-Un has been aggressively pursuing the upgradation of its missile technology and assembling of a miniature nuclear device on a priority basis that can be launched as a nuclear warhead potentially capable of hitting the America continent,Within a year of his rule,North Korea under Kim Jong-Un in December 2012 launched a long range rocket that could potentially hit the continental US shortly followed by third nuclear test in February 2013. The international community remains “largely in the dark about this latest underground nuclear test.”
Although it caused a magnitude of 5.1 tremor, no gases escaped and experts say there was no way to evaluate whether a plutonium or uranium device was detonated.It is therefore not possible to assess if North Korea has managed to produce a highly enriched uranium device that may help determine the type and sophistication of the North’s warhead design.
The implications of an immediate escalation of a military type conflict in the Korean peninsula are really grave, According to South Korean government “ North Korea has moved at one missile with considerable range to east coast –possibly the untested Musudan missile believed to have a range of 1800 miled(3000Km).”
On the top of it,South Korea is separated from North Korea and its huge standing army by a highly militarized frontier and the countries remain in an official state of war, as the Korean war ended in 1953 without a peace treaty .
Any miscalculated army adventure by North Korea at this stage can plunge the Korean peninsula in a devastating conventional war, seriously dragging the world in a war- like situation that could also seriously upset and alter the immediate prospects of US shifting its 40,000 troops from Afghanistan to this area that already hosts 80,000 US army men in various bases. The consequences can further aggravate with Europe already in deepening slowdown and US sitting on an uncertain sequester because of fiscal cliff.
Much will of course depend on how China can handle its awkward ally in North Korea and how the nuclear stand-off enjoining toughest sanctions against North Korea can be resolved.
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