:While policy makers and experts are finding it hard to predict the future of the ongoing upheavals in the Gulf region and the recent report of IAEA accusing Iran of developing nuclear weapon has added another dimension to the Mid east problem.
Israel appears intent to avail this opportunity for bombing nuclear facilities of Iran with the support of US but fails to recognize that it has already isolated itself from the world community by repeatedly pursuing disproportionate aggressive actions against the Palestine and gaza .
The US also may not be able to Agree to such a move because of its economic recession, severe financial constraint and its utterly complicated position in Iraq ,Afghanistan and tribal belt of Pakistan .
If both US, Isarel attack Iran
--Then A Block will be created consisting of Iran, Syria , Lebanon, Palestine and other countries in the muslim world .
--Moreover if United States decides to bomb nuclear facilities of Iran after the recent IAEA report which has indicated that Iran is near making nuclear arsenals then Iran will harden its stand to pursue its nuclear weapons programme . Consequently, Iran leadership will expand its program in a more secretive way.
---Another important aspect to be note that this attack may develop into a larger conflicts/war with China and Russia intervening seriously for their own interests in the region.
---One more point such a move by US/Israel will increase the already prevailing anti-American sentiment in Muslim world.
---Similarities will be drawn in the US invasion of Iraq and now in Iran without any reasons as this step will be based purely on threat perception by Israel.
--This will enhance new recruits in terror outfits /jehadi groups which will increase terrorism, extremism to the utter disadvantage of US interests .
--US is already facing protests in wall street as a result of double dip recession, severe financial strain and Obama’s presidential prospects may jeopardize by such an act.
--There is also possibility of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq becoming more vulnerable.
Meanwhile ,the Obama Administration is working with world powers including Russia and China to send a unified and strong message to Iran after the IAEA meet.
The 35-nation board of Governors meeting of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are due to meet in Vienna for a two-day meeting starting today to discuss its report on Iran's nuclear weapons program
The talks will also cover Syria and its suspected covert reactor bombed by Israel in 2007.
Iran Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said "We have decided to draft and send an analytical letter with logical and rational responses to International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano's recent report."
What would be the impact of the Arab Spring on the US policy towards Middle-East? Who would benefit the most from the developments in the Arab World?
Now to know that we should visualize the trends after the fall of old regimes .As you know Ennahda party has won the Tunisia elections ensuring an Islamist dominated government.Tunisia liberals and secularists accuse Gulf states particularly Saudi Arabia and UAE of having funded the Ennahda party.Likewise in Egypt elections with no international monitors will be held in three phases.
There are enough indications of occurring fraud in November 28 elections and funding from various quarters ie from conservatives and liberals .Moreover the Egypt military Junta seems far less willing to cede power to a civil government .
The election results of Tunisia may in some way enhance the election prospects of Muslim brotherhood party in Egypt.
In Libya the officials from National Transitional council as well as rebel fighters have praised assistance from Qatar and country now favour sharia laws .
US as a superpower will make every effort to ensure that situation in MidEast does not degenerate in favour of Conservative Islamists at a time when its economy is in doldrums and its financial system is under severe strain. It has to push its agenda towards moderate thus forces in favour of moderation will be helped by US.
US will have to adopt diplomacy that will ensure balance between the two blocks viz Sunni and Shia existing in Middle East and North Africa
There are enough indications of occurring fraud in November 28 elections and funding from various quarters ie from conservatives and liberals .Moreover the Egypt military Junta seems far less willing to cede power to a civil government .
The election results of Tunisia may in some way enhance the election prospects of Muslim brotherhood party in Egypt.
In Libya the officials from National Transitional council as well as rebel fighters have praised assistance from Qatar and country now favour sharia laws .
US as a superpower will make every effort to ensure that situation in MidEast does not degenerate in favour of Conservative Islamists at a time when its economy is in doldrums and its financial system is under severe strain. It has to push its agenda towards moderate thus forces in favour of moderation will be helped by US.
US will have to adopt diplomacy that will ensure balance between the two blocks viz Sunni and Shia existing in Middle East and North Africa
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