The Jasmine revolution spreading from Tunisia and Egypt promises to encompass the entire Mid-East region including countries of North Africa located on the rim of Mediterranean. It also possesses the potential of dissolving the acute tribal, ethnic and sectarian divisions within various countries that so bitterly afflict the region and prove to be the main stumbling block in
the road to moderation and progress of this area. As the mass revolution gathers momentum in the authoritarian regimes like Syria , Yemen, Bahrain , Jordan and Saudi Arabia it has suffered a major jolt in Libya where colonel Gaddafi with a maddening lust for power resorted to nothing short of genocide of his own people by savagely bombarding the centers of revolution by his air force , missiles even taking the help of militiamen and mercenaries.
Situation in Libya
As the revolution originating in the eastern city of Benghazi spread westwards to the capital city of Tripoli engulfing almost the entire ountry, Gaddafi forces supported by mercenaries resorted to bombing of mass centres of civilian revolutionaries. The distress calls for protection against this genocide initially went unanswered by the international community though France was the first to recognize the Libyan revolution. Ultimately UNO under its mandate to provide “protection to civilian from their own governments or rulers”
authorized the imposition of no-fly zone over Libya in order to intervene against the devastation being caused by Gaddafi forces.
France, UK and later US joined hands in destroying the Libyan government air planes and other installations but the delay in enforcing the UN resolution afforded some gains to the Gaddafi forces that have the potential of dragging the country in a state of civil war considering the nitty-gritty of warfare on the ground.The emerging economies of China, India and Brazil which have made huge investments in Libya’s energy and resource sector are however critical by the US-led action for ignoring their co-operation in the said action. With Gaddafi’s days almost numbered, his early exit from the country may prove to be a fruitful proposition. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are considering whether to supply weapons to the Libyan opposition as coalition air strikes fail to dislodge government forces from around key contested towns.It may not be out of place to take note of country-wise daunting challenges that have often impeded meaningful solutions to the problems in question.
Syria:
The political power in Syria has been in the hands of a minority Alawite muslim community, an off shoot of Shia Islam through Baath party for close to fifty years, while the majority of the country’s 22.5 million population are Sunni Muslims .
Bahrain: This tiny country has a sizable population of Shias .Government crackdown on anti-government protesters resulted in resignations of 11 lawmakers from the Shia opposition party Al-Wefaq.Its close vicinity to Saudis exerbates situation for the latter which recently sent its security forces to normalize the situation in
Bahrain.
Yemen: President Ali Abdullah Saleh has rejected the protesters call for a phased transition of power this year. A rift between Saleh’s Sanhan clansmen, who dominate the top military and security posts and
sons of his powerful former ally the late Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar threatens to turn the political struggle into a tribal feud.
Mid –East democratic change takes roots in (and from) Egypt:
While the mass revolution started in Tunisia, solid foundations for bringing about a truly democratic change were laid in Egypt. Army showed solidarity with the peaceful protesters asking for transition of political power for as long as two weeks till the President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Feb 11. Now the army stands arbiter to the said change in the shape of military Council with the ultimate aim to bestow the benefits of citizenship on all the people thereby burying the divisions that enabled preferential privileges to some.The council has therefore decided to repeal the emergency laws before conducting free and fair parliamentary polls that are scheduled to be held in September 2011. The council has already approved a law that
eases restrictions on the formation of political parties while banning those based on religion. Amendment dated March 28, says parties “cannot base their principles, programme or activity or choice of leaders and members on religion, class or sect”.
The developments can be likened to an awakening with winds of change having effect even in the India-Pakistan affairs where cricket diplomacy is being followed . Shifting of focus on economic and governance issues and doing away with retrogressive policies in the Mid-east region may hold lessons for the South Asian countries especially India and Pakistan to fine tune their policies to mutual and regional interests.
Impact on Oil markets;
The uprisings in the Mid-east have however adversely impacted the oil markets. Libya’s crude output has fallen to fewer than 400,000 barrels a day- a quarter of pre-crisis levels of around 1.59 million barrels a day in January 2011 and unless the crisis is overcome immediately, the supplies could be entirely disrupted.
The oil prices have already gone up and are likely to remain so thereby putting pressure on economic activity while the global economy has yet to emerge from the downturn. These prolonged conflicts which push up oil prices are bad for the emerging markets of India and China which are heavily dependent on oil imports to meet their ever increasing energy needs.
An apt comparison between Mid-east 2011 revolution and the 1848revolutions in Europe is being drawn. The nepotistic monarchics and one-party “republics” of modern Middle east have similarities in the Kingdoms and empires ruled in Europe in the Mid-nineteenth century.
In both the cases the political opposition was highly suppressed and voting rights were limited . Likewise , in the middle east today many countries have universal voting rights theoretically. But with the passage of a century and a half , the Arab people of Middle east are likely to lay down their goals wisely. The engagement of modern minds with the army and the members of Muslim brotherhood in Egypt may settle for some reforms that may provide impetus to the requisite solution that may be able to solve the problems of ever bulging population, joblessness and dire economic conditions for educated youth of the region. The main agendas of the movement in all the areas mainly focus on economic issues and economic progress of the region that may create resources for fulfilling the hopes of the people and that is sure to act as a redeeming feature of this revolution.With Libya and Egypt located on the rim of Mediterranean sea and Suez canal being vital to EU's sea routes to the gulf countries for strategic and economic interests ,France , UK and US were naturally the first to intervene militarily in Libya . They thus have a dire need to end the Libyan crises quickly. This explains their urgently taking up the challenge in Libya inspite of UK and France sitting on
financial crisis and US joining them though its forces were unduly stretched in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now the command has been taken over by NATO forces.
Likewise India's economic interests are gravely affected with Suez canal serving the main sea route to Indian exports to Europe. Besides India has deep civilization and trade links to Egypt since the times
of Nehru-Nasser era . Even otherwise, Libya and Egypt serve as important destination for Indian skilled workers. India should therefore look for better diplomatic handling of the developments in Mid-East . It is also imperative for the new government of Egypt to have good relations with India in their own interest.
Needless to say that the developments in Mid- East may enhance the power balance for Asia in the world forum
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