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Feb 10, 2011

Fall of Hosni Mubarak's regime inevitable

With mass revolution entering the seventh day in Egypt and crowds swelling by the hour, the protesters are adamant to accept nothing short of the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak .The offers of change of government, appointment of a new Vice President and Prime Minister and promises of reforms have all gone unheeded. The protesters, however, gave the President a Friday ultimatum to quit, and called for a show of strength on Wednesday.

Now the protesters have declared general strike across the nation to the followed by a demonstration by a million people in the Tahrir square in Cairo , Tony Blair has described the fall of Hosni Mubarak as “inevitable”.

US Secretary of State has also called for an orderly transition of political leadership in Egypt to secure the country against chaotic conditions.Leading Egyptian activist Mohamed El Baradei has also said that Hosni Mubarak should step down and set a framework for transition of power rather than think of forming a new government that may prove disappointing for Egyptians.


Issues central to the protests in Arab World that earlier toppled the 23 –year regime of Ben Ali in Tunisia and now imminently threatens the 30 year old regime of Hosni Mubarak have a peculiar character specific to this region. Unduly lengthy and repressive regimes of authoritarian rulers were utterly ridden with governance deficits.

People were badly suffering from joblessness,corruption and social injustice .No wonder suicide by a lone sufferer in Tunisia provided ammunition sufficient to engulf the region in a revolution without any sort of political leadership .The revolution has so far been driven by the young generation of under thirties spurring the indignities perpetuated by the authoritarian system and is spreading instantaneously .

Thousands of Yemenis have taken to the streets of the capital, Sanaa, in recent days, demanding a change of government.The current unrest appears to be partly a reaction to a proposal last year by General People's CongressGPC members to end presidential term limits that would require President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down when his term ends in 2013.

Similarly ,thousands of Jordanians have taken part in anti-government protests in Amman and other towns, demanding political reform, better economic conditions and the resignation of the country's unpopular prime minister.

Change is going on in Arab World :


Sudan holds a referendum on Jan 9-15 and the outcome of approximately 99% vote will split South Sudan into a separate country.

• In Lebanon on January 12 Key cabinet ministers resign in protest against impending indictments from a U.N.-backed investigation into the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, toppling the governing coalition.



• On January 14 after widespread protests ,President Ben Ali flees the country .


With the modern media social networking sites like Facebook,twitter alongwith U tube that see no borders . No wonder the revolution currently engulfs the mid –east region and promises to democratize the region along enlightened governance modes.

Egypt is a key Arab country considered as a massive pillar to the US policies in this region. Strategically Suez Canal serves as the main entrance for US warships as well as global cargo for this area..

US oil interests in mid east are quite well known. Egypt has also entered into a peace agreement with Israel. US concerns with the developments in Egypt are therefore manifold and any political change in Egypt will ultimately have a bearing on US policy orientations. US has therefore identified its interests with the people of Tunisia as well as Egypt and in view of this these . regimes were so far supported by US. Thus chaotic condition overtaking the mass protests have the risk of spreading Islamists influences that may ultimately affect US interests.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of the dangers of an Iranian-style regime led by Islamic extremists arising out of the political chaos sweeping through Egypt. "In a time of chaos, an organised Islamic group can
take over the state. It happened in Iran and it also happened in other places," the Israeli leader said .Although it was not extremist elements that provoked the instability in Tunisia or Egypt, the fear was that they could exploit the political vacuum left by the collapse of the ruling power, Netanyahu added.

The magnitude of the crisis in Egypt can be well understood with most of the countries, including India ,quickly evacuating their people from the country. With more than a hundred killed there are fears of violence breaking out in view of confrontationist attitude being adopted by Hosni Mubarak .In view of his having basically come from the military background , he may try to bank upon military support. Already airforce planes and helicopters were seen flying low over the protesters.

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