Hoping to emerge as a separate nation,the people of Southern Sudan overwhelmingly voted for succession in a week long referendum that ended on January 15,2011.The voting is widely expected to exceed the criteria of 60 per cent limit to uphold its validity and was monitored by hundreds of international observers including Jimmy carter ,former US president, Kofi Annan ,the former
United Nations Security General and Joseph Wanoba former Tanzanian prime minister.
The referendum was held under a peace treaty signed in the year 2005 that ended a two- decades long civil war between the north and South of the country that left 2 million dead and more than millions displaced.The divide was mainly due to majority muslim Arabs in dominant north areas and mainly Christians and animists in the South who follow traditional African religions.
Though south is rich in oil deposits and produces oil,north controls the pipeline for export through Port Sudan in the Red Sea. Inspite of being the third-largest oil producer in the Sub-Saharan Africa,the country remains desperately poor and debt-ridden.It is not clear how much of the crippling debts owned by the country will be shared by the South Sudan though miserably lacking in social conditions and development.
Further south gets almost all its money from oil.But the wealth-sharing deal ends when the comprehensive peace agreement ends in July 2010.Besides issues of borders,citizenship rights and water all remain unresolved .Thus the north and south will have to cooperate in a give and take manner.
The oil –producing Abyei region that straddles both the north and south entities may immediately become a contentious sticking point.The UN Security Council has already expressed “deep concern” about the lack of an agreement on the future of this region.A separate referendum to decide the fate of this region about joining the north or south already stands postponed and negotiations to resolve the matter have run into difficulties.
Many analysts therefore predict that if there is return to war in Sudan,it will start in Abyei.Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir has already warned that if southerners seized this region for themselves, it could lead to war. US president barrack Obama thus called for an end to violence in the disputed border region of Abyei adding that “the US will remain fully committed to helping the parties solve critical post referendum issues regardless of the outcome of the vote.”
Post referendum issues have the potential to escalate in an unpredictable manner. During the transition period many outstanding issues emerge that could spark tensions between north and south Sudan including border issue , the dispute over the oil-rich area of Abyei, the Blue Nile and south Kordofan areas, nationality, ownership, oil, water, joint military integrated units, the international agreements and conventions, currency, external debts and the national assets.
Obama accordingly noted that successful vote would be “cause of celebration” but warned that “an enormous amount of work remains to ensure that people of Sudan can live with security and dignity”.Delivering a similar note Thabo Mbeki ,the African Union’s mediator on Sudan observed that “The work of freedom is just at its beginning. We are confident that the Southern Sudanese people have the strength and spirit to succeed in that endeavour.”
The final result is due on February ,6 and if there are appeals that the result can be postponed to February 14,2011.
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