The outcome of the coming 6th May Britain election remains unpredictable, while the three parties viz-left wing Labour Party headed by current Prime Minister Gordon Brown,the conservative Party (also called the Tories) headed by David Cameron and the normally distant third Party Liberal Democrat (Lib-Dem) that usually attracted the lowest 20-22% of popular votes headed by Nick Clegg aggressively vie for power mainly on economic and immigration issues that exercise the mind of the voters.
But this election may prove to be historic , as it is likely to mark the end of 13 years of labour Party rule.But more importantly it may bring about a new power sharing deal, with usually the third force Lib-Dem prominently holding the balance of power.
With a major surge in its poll ratings in the televised debate of 15th April , the party had been virtually dictating terms of its tie-up with other parties in the event of a hung parliament .It even talks of the possibility of tie up with the labour only if the latter drops Brown. At another point of time , it declared that it would tie-up only with that party which secures maximum percentage of mandate.But, with the third and the last televised show dated 29th April, the focus shifts from economics to immigration giving advantage to Cameron though the poll fortunes of the parties might further change in the last few days before lections.
Sensing a prominent position in a hung parliament, Lib Demo leader Nick Clegg laid down “electoral reform” as the key point of negotiation for a tie-up after the election.Stressing the present system of first-past-the –poll system as unfair and discriminatory against the smaller parties,he illustrates the flaw by quoting his party’s fate under this flawed system in the 2005 election.Though his party was able to capture 22% of the popular votes, it only won 9% of the seats. Thus, stressing for electoral reform,he argues that too many votes are wasted in safe seats, where either labour or conservatives have large, in built, majorities and this depresses turn out. Resultantly, results hinge on the preferences of a small number of voters in a handful of swing constituencies .This has initiated a public debate on the issue and electoral reform may take place before the next election.But it may also stir up voters consciousness even in this election.
A host of issues already weigh against the Labour party :its not so good performance in the current economic crisis compared to other developed countries,Tony Blair’s rather blind support of US war on Iraqi , a lackluster poll leadership of Gordon Brown, Lib-Demo’s condition for tie-up after poll only without Brown, Brown’s poll gaffe calling voters as ‘bigoted’ , its having lost connect with the youth and thus going out of fashion overwhelmingly mar its chances of returnings to power.Lib Dems that support cutting taxes , greater devolution of power to the local governments, moderate stance on immigration look better placed. But with conservatives prospects
On the up-swing during the last televised debate, the prospects of a conservative-Lib Dem coalition could also emerge.
Chances of a minority conservative government with support of Lib-Dem can not be ruled out .But the chances of a coalition breaking up later or the likelihood of minority government losing power subsequently may result in fresh elections that may have grave consequences for the just rising Lib-Dem party.
Published (02/05/2010)
http://samaylive.com/english/nation/articles/676463155.html
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