US faces its severest test in the outcome of coming August 20 Presidential and Provincial councils elections in Afghanistan.The outcome of these elections will determine the success achieved by the Obama administration in giving the desired political shape to this country and whether the country will be able to surmount its internal divisive and ethnic forces and further rid itself of the menace of Taliban and al Qaeda combine that threatens major cities and economics across the world .In the process Afghanistan may avail the opportunity to establish itself as a grand old country with meaningful relevance to its neighbourhood in Central Asia, Mid-East and various countries in the SAARC region. Because only such a mandate of the Afghanis in these elections will befit its national pride and rid the country of a rather derogatory cliché of being a ‘fulcrum for power in the region’ though several powers that tried to gain power by occupying this country in recent years as well as in the nineteenth century (the British empire) failed miserably. These elections thus present the lofty prospects for Afghanistan to re-establish itself as a strong nation with meaningful relations with neighbouring countries in the Central Asian region as well as Iran, India ,Pakistan, China,Russia and the US ,enabling it land routes through Iran to the gulf region through Pakistan to the Arabian sea and through Caucasus to Eurasia and other European countries.
After assuming presidency, Obama thus seriously set out on a sustained course of all round diplomacy as well as strategic military action in the “Af-Pak” area. He offered to engage in direct diplomacy with Iran that could help stabilize this country and provide alternative land route connecting Afghanistan with the Persian gulf and the Arabian sea .Again Obama visited Moscow on July 7th engaging the Russians with major foreign policy initiatives and options and succeeded in securing a concession for American aircrafts to fly through Russian airspace for carrying troops and equipment to Afghanistan to deal with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda menace. President Obama said “America has a clear goal:to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda and its allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan.We seek no bases,nor do we want to control these nations.Instead,we want to work with international partners,including Russia,to help Afghans and Pakistanis advance their own security and prosperity”. The routes previously used through the lawless tribal belt of Pakistan were proving to be counterproductive due to the complicity of tribal people in Taliban phenomenon on both sides of the Durrand line. This also brought home to the Kremlin the convergence of American and Russian interests in stabilizing the region of the central Asia. Similarly in the Swat valley area and adjoining districts in Pakistan where Taliban had almost wrested the control of major Pashtun territory and enforced sharia to morphe the said area into their stronghold that could later promote their interests in spreading further and ultimately overtake the state of Pakistan and later launch a world wide jehad. Obama administration successfully pressurized Pakistan to deploy its forces to exterminate the Taliban from the newly acquired areas as well as from other areas of NWFP where they had already spread their wings.
The latest visit of Hillary Clinton US Secretary of State to India was also aimed at harmonizing and substantially improving the relations between India and Pakistan and in ensuring a joint approach to the menace that threatened to take over the state of Pakistan with the set objective of starting jehad against India.This latest visit of the Secretary of State has obviously also sent meaningful and clear messages to the people of Afghanistan as well as the Taliban cadres that the insurgency there may be on its last legs.In view of this changing scenario talks are quietly and steadily progressing between moderate leaders of the Talibans and representatives of the Afghan and US governments aimed at reconciliation where moderate elements of the Taliban would have a stake in the outcome. Simultaneously US and NATO forces have substantially stepped up military action against active Taliban cadres to bring down the morale of less committed rural folk. According to some estimates, active and hard-line Taliban insurgents roughly number only around 15000 but are supported by a large grouping of rural Talibans supporters who provide assistance to the insurgency in the south and east of Afghanistan. It is this large grouping that is sought to be dissuaded after they sense the Taliban prospects to be bleak .
It may not be out of context to refer to the topography of the rugged mountains that provide scarce resources and thus drive the Pashtuns of the tribal belt to make random incursions beyond their borders whenever they sense slackness in security over there.When beaten back they retreat back into the mountains that provide shelter and defence.They owe tribal and sub tribal loyalties but equations between different tribes also change constantly.At times they emerge as huge militias in the shape of Talibans or any other form and launch major assaults .Resultantly hey possess sizable qualities of arms,ammunition and sorts of heavy armaments plundered from Soviets forces and provided by US during anti-Soviets operations as well as left behind or cornored from US and NATO forces during the current conflict started in the year 2001. Currently the Talibans harbour strong ambitions to seize and acquire nuclear assets of Pakistan in view of deteriorating conditions over there.This looks frightening. The region comprising Afghanistan and tribal belt of Pakistan is also home to narcotic and arms smuggling and human trafficking that also created havoc in the neighbourhood. Thanks to elimination of LTTE in Sri Lanka, peace process in Nepal that ended the Maoist activity in that country, recent vigorous approach in India to the Maoists in the “Red Corridor” that runs from Orissa to Nepal, the chains of arms smugglers may vanish wiping out criminal activity in this region.
With as much as 41 candidates contesting for the top slot of Presidency, the way these elections may impact the political climate of the country is yet not clear. But the observers say that the number of contestants will definitely shrink considerably with most of them withdrawing in favour of prominent persons just before the last date of election.And the image and personality effect of the remaining candidates may also help change the political climate . Karzai is widely considered the front runner in this campaign.Dr Abdullah Abdullah has emerged as another main contender for Presidency. He enjoys the backing of the largest opposition group, the National Front representing those that have moved away from the Nation’s reliance on warlords and other Mujahadeen leaders .He also promises to build Afghan institutions so that foreign troops could go home soon and has raised issues of curbing corruption, shifting the focus on grassroot development as well as seriously engaging towards reconciliation with Talibans .However in a recent development and a major blow to the National Front supporting Abdullah Abdullah,Karzai has nominated Marshal Fahim the founder member of national Front as his Vice President in the forthcoming elections that may enable him to get a good number of Tajik and Panjsheri votes. Further Hazara leader Karim Khalili has also been nominated as a Vice-President ensuring Hazara tribe support to Karzai.Other prominent contenders include former finance minister Ahmadzai,a former Afghan Defence Minister Shah Nawaz Tanaj and Mullah Abdul Salem Rocketi. Around 17 million Afghans voters who are mostly war-weary and have suffered enormously due to prolonged instability are expected to vote prudently as they seek employment and economic recovery .This electoral process taking place in the context of rapidly changing environments brought about by Obama administration with tacit understanding from Iran and Russia and India-Pakistan engagement may yet see the transformation of Afghanistan and the SAARC countries into a better region.
Updated : Friday, 31 Jul 2009, 15:27 [IST]
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