Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's flawed approach

While the regional countries are grappling  hard to stabilize Afghanistan, President t Ashraf Ghani chooses to obediently toe the Pakistani line and even walks  all out to soothe Pakistani concerns unmindful of the realities in his own country.

Ashraf Ghani  government's inability to suppress insurgency in the north has forced the formation of the coalition between former rivals Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Mohammad Noor setting aside their differences and forging a new coalition aimed at fighting insurgents. 

Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants — were planning attacks on U.S. and coalition forces there, necessitating drone strikes earlier this week. 

"The strikes were against individuals known to be planning attacks against U.S. and coalition personnel," said a U.S. military spokesman in Afghanistan.

The spokesman did not elaborate on what kind of attacks or where the individuals were planning attacks against U.S. and coalition forces.

The U.S. has about 9,800 U.S. troops in Afghanistan at 17 U.S. bases and five coalition bases around the country.

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Ghani’s approach virtually entails  the rolling back of the entire Indian influence  in Afghanistan .First, by sending Afghan troops  for training in Pakistan military academy instead of India  as done previously .Second,by suspending his own country’s request  for Indian weapons  and third by starting sharing the intelligence cooperation entirely with Pakistan. This gives a clear impression of Afghanistan walking extra miles solely with Pakistan.

This shift in Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy  is definitely flawed when the country  is virtually slipping  into a civil war  as illustrated by renewed Taliban attacks in the vicinity of Kabul.

Pakistan's spy agency ISI has further entered into an agreement with its Afghan counterpart over intelligence sharing and coordinated operations against Taliban militants.

This approach  was adopted after Pakistan president Nawaz Sharif , army chief Gen Raheel Sharif and ISI chief Lt Gen Rizwan Akhtar's visited  Afghanistan last week to seek more cooperation to eradicate Taliban rebels operating  along both sides of the border.Intelligence agencies of both the countries will take part in the interrogation of terror suspects and conduct joint operations. Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) chief Rahmatullah Nabil, was also against the move.

The new approach mainly centers around  both Pakistan and Afghan army dealing ruthlessly with Talibans along the borders without any consideration for their being  called “Good Talibans” ( who detest Kabul regime) and “ Bad “Talibans” ( who are in favour of full blown Sharia law in Paki) and  have been instrumental in destroying the state of Pakistan.

Ghani’s stated aim is to bring back Talibans to the negotiating table  and then to integrate  them into the government to end the stalemate.

The recently concluded  talks  in Doha were participated by different Taliban group in their individual capacity and the Afghan authorities but proved inconclusive.The Talibans mainly insisted on a pre condition that “First of all America and its allies should put an end to their occupation in their country  and that will only  facilitate further negotiations.

Afghan Government’s new approach is evidently flawed in the sense that Pakistan has given no concrete concessions to Afghanistan .Ghani-Nawaz friendship caused uproar in Afghanistan, where politicians and the media accused the government of selling out the country to the mortal enemy.

The Taliban in the far flung areas of Farah,Kunduz and Badakhshan have already mounted a new spring offensive and are consolidating  their positions in the areas that are far from Kabul and will thus be able to escalate  their activities in the rest of the country.

The stability of Afghanistan is therefore not really ensured  in this approach Former president Karzai has already dubbed  this approach as servile  to Pakistani interests that places  Pakistan in a dominating position in Afghanistan whereby they will be tempted to execute their own designs against the interests of Afghanistan.

Another challenge that Ghani will face  consists of dimension of 3 lakh terrorists driven out from North Waziristan and 70000 ethnic Afghans having been expelled from Peshawar may have joined ISIS in Afghanistan  after the attack on Pakistan Army children have been left untackled.

Ghani adopted this new approach after US failed  to free Afghanistan from the clutches of Taliban and Al Qaeda even after second  military intervention in the aftermath of 9/11 and eventually engaged Iran in a leadership role in this region.

Finding similarities in US goals with Iran's interests in Afghanistan, both the countries have joined hands to resolve the decades old standoff over the Nuclear deal. Iran and the United States, along with five other world powers, announced a surprisingly specific and comprehensive understanding on limiting Tehran’s nuclear program for the next 15 years, though they left several specific issues to a final agreement in June.

The entire process of engaging Iran in Afghanistan was necessitated as international community was fearful of the fact that after the 2016 final drawdown , the Taliban and the Al Qaeda elements  will gain greater control of the region where ISIS have also gained prominence.

There are reports that a secret pact has been brokered between Secretary of State John Kerry  and Iranian foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif  that binds Iran into ensuring against any flare ups happenings in Iraq,Afghanistan and Syria  in return for successful finalization of Nuclear deal. United States, Iran and five other world powers have announced a deal outlining limits on Iran's nuclear programme so it cannot lead to atomic weapons. President Barack Obama has hailed the  deal restricting Iran's nuclear programme as a "historic understanding" which, if implemented, will make world safer.

The framework agreement, struck after intensive talks, aims to prevent Tehran making a nuclear weapon in exchange for phased sanction relief.

By virtue of its geographical and its cultural  influence over the civilian  population in Afghanistan and Central Asia Republics,Iran  enjoys the opportunity of gaining  a key role  in this region  as well but this is being opposed  by Sunni Arab Monarchs.

Iran’s interests in Afghanistan had been historically deep and profound . With Iran being a very developed and centralized  country  with Shia regime has been partaking in establishing soft power with Afghanistan. Afghanistan being a tribal society consists of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras in addition to Pushtun tribes that even display mutual antagonist tendencies.After 2001 during Bonn agreement  Iran supported  US policy of installing  multiethnic Hamid Karzai government where various ethnic groups ie Hazaras, Tajiks and Uzbeks were properly represented.

Currently, national unity government in Afghanistan by Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah has allowed Iran to further consolidate  its soft and hard power  capabilities in Afghan domestic politics

Iran has been facilitating its influence in Afghanistan by using substantial soft power .It supported pro-Iranian schools,mosques and media centres. Though this approach was not liked in the Pushtun areas but Iran was able to make inroads in the Afghan domestic politics and different ministries. It also invested heavily to the tune of  $500 million and also increased exports  that exceeded $ 2 billion.

It  was also mainly instrumental in defeating Taliban through Northern Alliance in the year 2001 and  is now deploying hard power by using two pronged strategy of defeating the Talibans

The paramount objective  of Iran is to secure its national security interests, as Sunni-Salafist extremists in the form of ISIS etc  have encircled  Iran from Iraq and Afghanistan  .ISIS offensive gets more deadlier when they describe Iran Shias as even non Muslims. IS currently gathering momentum in Afghanistan’s South and West have also  joined hands with militant Baluchi Salafists .It has provided refuge to Rigi’s Jundalah’s prominent offshoots :Jaish ul-Nasr and Jaish-ul-Adl who are into the business of kidnappings and violent activities in Iran. It is therefore  using Quds force to establish a networks of Shia fighters similar to Hizb-e- Wahadad to fight directly ISIS group in Afghanistan.

Iran also intends to establish its leadership in Afghanistan both strategically and economically because of the significant Shia Muslim population and available  energy resources  in Central Asian Republics  which are required  to be  exported  to the energy starved countries like Pakistan,India,China and other ASEAN countries through Afghanistan areas.

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Iran has been  traditionally a trading  country through the ancient silk route that pass through Afghanistan and extend upto European shores thus at times giving flourishing economic booms to Tehran.

A major trading hub is being established in the Chabahar port with Iran-India cooperation that will facilitate flow of trade to central Asia region and already a number of new trade Silk routes are being constructed connecting trade facilities to this hub..

But Indian trade to Central Asia was   being obstructed through Afghanistan  that also cast shadows on Iranian economy.

Basically India and Iran have legitimate strategic interests in Afghanistan stability but Pakistan denying transit facilities to India  and also conducting proxy wars against India from the Afghanistan soil and is engaged in anti-Iran and anti-India policies.

Pakistan’s role is also very significant for the stability of Afghanistan but   for decades Afghan Taliban leadership is being provided sanctuary in Quetta while Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan are finding safe Havens in Waziristan .These Twin Talibans are working hand in glove in  executing subversive activities in Afghanistan while Pakistan Talibans  are also engaged in proxy wars against India even from Afghan territory.

It may therefore be appropriate if a mature approach is adopted by Ghani taking all aspects into consideration .

His approach may have an added effect of bringing Pakistan,Afghanistan and China  closer with regard to Gwader where Balochistan’s resources are being parted by Pakistan authorities  to the utter dismay of Balochis groups like Jundullah and sidelining India and Iran facilities in Chabahar and Bandar Abbas which are run entirely on commercial basis.

China  and Pakistan ominous friendship may not therefore find a space in stabilizing Afghanistan and instead Iran and India may occupy the m the main space and US policy is apparently working in that direction.