Syria is in the midst of an uncertain future following the toppling of Bashar al-Assad, who ruled the country for nearly two decades. Bashar al-Assad, the son of Hafez al-Assad, who established the Assad regime in 1970, has reportedly fled to Russia. As the country navigates this transition, leaders and citizens in the region and beyond have expressed high hopes for the creation of a new Syria. However, caution is warranted, as demonstrated by the experiences of other conflict-affected states like Libya.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy underscored this concern, stating, "We do not want Syria to become like Libya, fractured and vulnerable to terror groups."
Syria has become a battleground for regional players and armed groups, with Islamists led by Ahmad al-Sharaa emerging as significant players in the transitional process. Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has acknowledged that it will take at least four years to conduct national elections. Once affiliated with the Islamic State and later al-Qaeda, Sharaa moderated his views in May 2018 and formed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), or the "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant."
After being ruled by the Alawite minority for half a century and 13 years of brutal civil war, Syria faces immense challenges, including economic instability and the daunting task of uniting its diverse political and social fabric. The country is home to a wide array of ethnic and religious groups, including Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, Christians, Druze, Alawites, and both Shia and Sunni Arabs, the latter constituting the majority of the Muslim population.
The presence of numerous armed rebel groups presents a significant hurdle to a smooth transition, as tensions between rival factions could reignite conflict. In a bid to prevent such an outcome, Sharaa unveiled an accord last week to dissolve these groups and integrate them into the defense ministry.
US role in creating
Questions emerge what will be the future for the nation’s governance, security and economy after the sudden fall of Assad regime
Professor Jeffery Sachs said, "It’s a game. This is the Deep State and they have their wars and every war has been phoney. Some wars the American people are basically never told about, for example, the war in Syria. And you may actually hear from grown up reporters who are lying through their teeth or ignorant beyond imagining that, “Oh, the war in Syria, yes, Russia intervened in Syria”. Well, do you know that Obama tasked the CIA to overthrow the Syrian government starting four years before Russia intervened? What kind of nonsense is that? And how many times did the New York Times report on Operation Timber Sycamore, which was the presidential order to the CIA to overthrow Bashar Al Assad? Three times in 10 years."
"Where did that war come from? You know what? It’s quite surprising. That war came from Netanyahu, actually. You know that it’s weird. And the way it is is that Netanyahu had, from 1995 onward, the theory that the only way we’re going to get rid of Hamas and Hezbollah is by toppling the governments that support them. That’s Iraq, Syria and Iran, he revealed reportedly in a podcast.
THE NEW SYRIAN AUTHORITY
The new Syrian authorities have made nearly 50 high-ranking military appointments, including at least six foreign fighters—among them Chinese and Central Asian Uyghurs, a Turkish citizen, an Egyptian, and a Jordanian. These appointments appear to reflect the role played by foreign fighters during the civil war, which ultimately led to the regime’s collapse. However, the inclusion of foreign jihadists in Syria’s defense structure may face resistance from the Syrian population and Western countries, who fear these fighters could prioritize the interests of their respective states over Syria’s sovereignty.
The coming days will reveal how consensus is built among rival command chains and powerful commanders while keeping the interests of the Syrian people at the forefront.
While elaborating about the difference between Libya and Syria conflicts,Tim Eaton,Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, said, “Major difference is the structure of Syria’s economy. Under heavy sanctions, Assad’s ‘useful Syria’ rump largely turned itself into a narco state through its production of amphetamines. Other areas of the country effectively operated as if there was a formal partition. Parts of northern Syria use the Turkish lira as their currency”.
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria has become a geopolitical battleground for Western and regional powers. Turkey and Israel, in particular, are vying to expand their influence and secure territorial gains. The United States and its allies, including Israel, have described Assad's downfall as part of the broader Arab Spring revolution that began in 2011, marked by regime changes in countries such as Tunisia.
The Western nations appear to have revived their sagging economies through sale of arms to Al-Qaeda, who have now tried to distant itself from terror groups and created rebels groups and other Jihadis.
Fulfilling his ambition of a "Greater Israel," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has directed Israeli forces to take control of a buffer zone in the Golan Heights, initially established by a 1974 ceasefire agreement with Syria, to expand settlements. Since December 8, 2024, the Israeli military has conducted airstrikes on Syria’s defense infrastructure, aiming to weaken the country’s security capabilities and achieve strategic objectives.
The regime change in Syria is widely seen as part of a broader strategy by the U.S., Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to advance their regional agendas. Assad was a key ally of Iran, Palestine, and Hezbollah. With Assad’s ouster, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is now exploring options to confront Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s security chief, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, has hinted at the formation of a new resistance movement against Israel within Syria.
Turkey and Israel are both striving to expand their influence within Syrian territory. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has reportedly directed forces to establish a “sterile defense zone” in southern Syria, extending into the demilitarized zone near Mount Hermon. Israeli forces have also expanded their presence beyond the occupied Golan Heights, particularly in the Quneitra province of southern Syria.
Turkey, leveraging its NATO membership and its extensive southern border with Syria, is focused on dismantling the Kurdish YPG group, which it considers a terrorist organization. The YPG, the Syrian branch of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey. Turkey’s growing influence in Libya and Syria underscores its ambitions to reshape the Mediterranean’s geopolitical landscape through Special Economic Zone or assisting in reconstruction. While Israel may oppose Ankara’s activities but Western powers might view Turkey as a stabilizing force for maritime security in the region.
Meanwhile, Russia has maintained a significant presence in Syria, engaging with various opposition groups. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called for inclusive political dialogue based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254. Moscow continues to advocate for an inclusive political process while keeping its military bases in Syria on high alert.
Regional and Western players have supported various elements of the Syrian opposition to differing extents throughout the conflict. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, concerned about the rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have aligned with Tehran’s call for regional unity to ensure stability and security.
Building Syria’s economy remains a monumental task for HTS, which is still designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other countries. According to the World Bank’s latest report from mid-2024, approximately 69% of Syrians live in poverty, with extreme poverty affecting 27%, a sharp rise from negligible levels in 2009.
The nation’s infrastructure has collapsed, and Syria’s GDP shrank by over 85% from 2011 to 2023, dropping to $9 billion, with a further contraction of 1.5% projected for 2025. While oil resources are concentrated in Kurdish-controlled areas, Syria is not a major exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean, further compounding its economic woes.
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