The TAPI pipeline from the world’s second largest natural gas field of Galkynysh will integrate the economies of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India .
Expected to operationalise by the end of 2019 but the success of the
Taliban offensive and the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan poses a major
challenge to the project.
The TAPI pipeline which has the potential to export up to 33 billion
cubic meters of natural gas per annum from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan,
is set to cross over 1,700 km, through Herat (Taliban stronghold) and
Balochistan (Taliban’s birthplace) before reaching the Indian Punjab
border, over a period of 30 years. It will enable landlocked
Turkmenistan, which has the world's fourth largest proven gas reserves,
to expand its gas export market to the southeast. The pipeline is
expected to carry 90 million metric standard cubic metres of gas daily,
of which India and Pakistan would get 38 mmscmd each and Afghanistan's
share would be 14 mmscmd .
Vice President Hamid Ansari,Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly
Berdimuhamedow, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani and Pakistani Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif were present at the TAPI ceremony.
"We are seeking to reclaim our shared geography and revitalise an
age-old legacy of our mutually enriching interactions. The launch of
TAPI also marks the first step towards fulfilling the vision of an
economically integrated region stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the
Caspian Sea," Ansari said.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ashgabat, in July this
year, gave the project a new push to reassert itself and counter
China's "one road, one belt policy".
TAPI gas pipeline project was originally conceived in 1997 when
George W Bush was the governor of Texas but now it is resulting in a
bitter tussle between US,Russia and China over energy resource and
consequently political supremacy over the Central and South Asian
region.
There are many dimensions to the TAPI project
ISIS threat to TAPI
Another aspect to this project commences from the jihadists of ISIS
which have also started enlarging their area in neighbouring
Afghanistan but where population linked to Hazaras, Tajiks,
Kurds,Turkmens and Uzbeks are already uniting to counter them.
Recently Iran and Turkmenistan vowed to jointly militarily intervene in
case IS jihadists launch invasions in their territories. Greater
emphasis is being placed on the threat of radical Islamism and AFghan
extremists that could de-stabilize Central Asia.
Tussle between US,Russia and China over energy resource
Turkmen is therefore now seriously having second thoughts of letting
its energy resource not being dominated by China and Russia . It may
be further noted that Russia had concluded pacts with China to allow
its energy to the Chinese territories which is resulting into a
strange nexus between them.It is feared that Russians are trying to
serve their own strategic and expainist interests through this newly
concluded pact. Since US and Russia are at loggerheads and had been
fighting with each other in Afghanistan after the collapse of Soviet
Union The US is secretly involved in shifting its strategic priorities
to the advantage of their policies .
The ISIS phenomenon right from Syria to Iraq appears ultimately headed
for a bloody clash in Turkmenistan in 2015 spring that may endanger
the implementation of this pipeline in view of the ethnic intricacies
but operationlisation of TAPI under US leadership will be able to give
a stable and peaceful future to Afghanistan.
The strategic objective of United States is to permanently close the
energy resource of Turkmenistan from entering Russian dominated
extremists region.
Central Asia being a landlocked region like Afghanistan the course of
flow of TAPI resources will be determined by the country that succeeds
in dominating the work of execution of this project and will be later
able to decide on the extended areas linked for the gas pipeline .As
per the American initiative the pipeline will pass through Taliban
heartland of Heart and Kandhar provinces in Afghanistan and than in
Quetta and Multan in Pakistan and will be extended to India in
Fazillka.
The TAPI pipeline has many challenges and opportunities :
Afghanistan can benefit by earning nearly a billion dollars that will
in turn create 12 thousand jobs in this country. Additionally this
employment will lead to the stability and normalization of political
conditions and help in defeating the Taliban ideology .
With global energy firms refusing to participate in the ambitious TAPI
gas pipeline,US and China have emerged as the two contenders to lead a
consortium that will design, finance, construct, own and operate the $
10 billion gas pipeline.
But Central Asian republicans are wary of Chinese dominance over their
energy resource which will ultimately translate into theit political
influence .Particularly Turkmenistan which is the country in question
do not wish to become an economic colony of China .
After the withdrawal of ISAF troops from Afghanistan, US( being the
second contender )believes that THIS gas pipeline has the potential to
transform the future of the entire region both South and Central Asia in
terms of regional and economic connectivity.
Obama administration is also pursuing a four pronged strategy to bolster
regional connectivity by linking Afghanistan to its neighbor in
Central and South Asia through road and rail links as a part of the New
Silk Road route as his exit strategy.Obama’s Asia ‘s strategy is to
build a regional energy market facilitating trade and transport and
border linkages and connecting businesses as these efforts will be
critical for securing Afghanistan economic ties with its neighbours
in Central and South asian economies. Obama’s main aim is to prohibit
Russia , Iran and China from seizing energy resources from the said
region.
Financingstill a concern
Asian Development Bank did initial feasible studies and several
international companies, including Mobil, Chevron, Total SA, Exxon, had
shown interest. But they later backed out as Ashgabat does not allow
foreign companies to invest in their gas fields.
Obama may be seen as limiting the presence of American boots in
Afghanistan but United States will stay till 2024 under the
Bilateral Security Agreement with Afghan Government . This agreement
envisages establishment of nine major land and air bases across
Afghanistan that includes Bagram, Jalalabad, Kandahar ,Kabul, Mazar
–e-Sharif,Herat,Helmand,Gardez and Shindand from where they will
control air operations in Afghanistan and also US drone strikes in
Tribal areas of Pakistan . U.S. will also have military advisers on at
least five bases.
The implementation of this project will entirely sideline the Russian influence in the Central Asian Republicans .
Both Russia and China are fighting for dominance in Central Asia
but Central Asian Republicans are themselves pushing them out of
their region. Because of the free fall of the Russian economy,they
don’t consider it worthwhile to tie their economy with the
severely damaged economy of Putin’s Moscow that may jeopardize their
economic future prospects. As regards China it is currently hungry
for energy resource of Central Asia to sustain their booming
economic activity. However its is expected that China’s economy may
also not be able to sustain their present extraordinary growth rate
because of their aging population.
As another dimension to the meeting with President Gurbanguly
Berdimuhamedow of Turkmenistan, Aghan President Ashraf Ghani sought
access to the energy-rich area around the Caspian Sea which is
geographically connected to the Black Sea and thereafter to Europe
.The Central Asia and Caspian sea region are blessed with abundant oil
and gas resources that has the potential to for growth both in Europe
and Asia. Each of the countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia face
difficult political challenges and are therefore not involved in the
areas included in this project. .
The impact of these resources on U.S. commercial interests and U.S.
foreign policy will also be significantly positive and very conducive.
It may be noted that Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan use ferries across
the Caspian Sea where after they go to Azerbejan,Georgia and other
parts of the Black Sea leading to European markets It appears that
Ghani is entertaining this option of associating his country’s economy
with Russia, China but US is specifically excludes this vision.
Meanwhie, Russia is pushing for alternative Silk Route that will
connect Russia Belarus Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan .
In case US is desirous of successful creating New Silk Route it will
have to commit huge financial resources to counter the increased
Russian and Chinese presence.
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