Afghanistan-Pakistan area has entered an extremely chaotic phase . With no government formation in Afghanistan even in distant site while the situation in neighboring Pakistan remains tense with military commanders intent to clutch any opportunity to stage a coup
in connivance with Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency,Tehrik –e-Taliban and politician Imran Khan's PTI .
Afghan Taliban have intensified the attacks on various government institutions and other strategic locations to engulf the major chunk of the country in their fold. On the other side Al Qaeda Leader Ayman AL Zawahri announced the establishment of the Indian terror wing to wage jihad in the Indian subcontinent and also pledging its allegiance to Mullah Omar, in return for the safe haven he granted their followers in Afghanistan.
Threatened by the growing influence of Islamic state terror army that is straddling the border of Iraq and Syria , Zawahri made the announcement to give a direction and shape to the jihadists groups in the Indian sub-continent and to start a jihad under the aegis of Talibans and other extremists groups. The existing extremists groups in Afghanistan-Pakistan region are facing identity crisis as Islamic State has recruiters all over the Western world seeking out new members though social media or known jihadi supporters in Canada, Britain, the U.S
.
This is a tactical move to destabilize the region that may pose dangers even for China,India ,Japan and other countries of ASEAN region
It may not be out of place to mention that political deterioration in Pakistan has infact resulted as Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif took upon North Waziristan as persuaded by China to check the jihadists from moving into Xinjiang.
China's Xinjiang and Pakistan's political scene
China who is witnessing frequent attacks in Xinjiang, a sprawling desert region bordering Tibet, Central Asia and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) that is home to the Uighurs, an ethnic Turkic Muslim minority group.
Chinese government have blamed recent similar attacks on extremist groups active in Xinjiang, such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) which is campaigning for independence and believe that ETIM’s leaders are hiding in Balochistan and north Waziristan.
Pakistan government resorted to military operation in north Waziristan but this action resulted in long marches by Imran Khan who has close links with Taliban and is hell bent on securing resignation of Pakistan PM Nawaz . Even Pakistan Army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif lashed out Nawaz Government over the treason trial of former army chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf, marking the first time the military's previously behind-the-scenes frustration .
Backed by Pakistani military ,Canadian-Pakistani cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri is doing everything to topple the civilian government through mass protests.
The stark conclusion is that Pakistan civilian Government cannot fulfill China’s ambitions in controlling jihadists in that country.While,Nawaz Sharif is trying utmost to contain the political situation in his country
Twin Talibans
Pakistan having taken part in repulsion of Soviet invasion gained extraordinary influence over the Taliban and have since been harbouring burning desire to use Afghanistan for their strategic interests (terming it as strategic depth of Pak) it also resulted in the creation of Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan in the northern Waziristan and the interaction between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistan Taliban became the headache for the entire world.
It is in this context Hamid Karzai has been warning Pakistan not to meddle in Afghan affairs . India is also facing consequences of the activities of these twin Talibans.
Afghan crisis
Now the delay in announcing the 2014 Afghan presidential election results due to vote audit process designed to eliminate the fraudulent ballots casts for the two contenders Abdullah and Ashraf has enabled the Talibans an opportunity for resurgence.
Talibans are regrouping and conducting assaults at various places to enhance their sphere of influence with a view to seize a role in the government that may soon come into effect
Abdullah Abdullah who is time and again threatening to pull out of the vote audit process may amount to plunge his country in further chaos only to fulfil his personal ambition of becoming the president announced that "The political process has reached a deadlock."
Both Abdullah and his rival, Ashraf Ghani, claim to have won the disputed June 14 run-off election. The candidates have expressed concern about election fraud and the recount process.
During kerry’s visit to Afghanistan in august, Abdullah and his rival, Ashraf Ghani signed a US brokered deal to form a national unity government under which the loser of the presidential vote will become the CEO which will be converted to that of PM as this violates the country’s constitution ,the president will convene loya jirga or grand council to formalize the arrangement . The president will also create the position of opposition leader to be appointed by the runner up and both the winner and the loser will select certain posts in national security and economic institutions to secure stability on the country.
Torn between ethnic and tribal division Afghanistan is in dire need of a popular leader possessing skills to handle transitions and challenges in a deft manner as Karzai who has been credited with for ruling the country successfully for 10 years and also leading the democratic transfer of power and is likely to play a prominent role in the new Afghan government. He can also contest the Afghan presidential elections in 2019
Role of neighbours
Afghanistan’s reconstruction political and security apparatus should logically be the shared responsibility of the international community and the regional states.
This should be an eye opener for China to properly weigh its policy with respect to Tibet, and India particularly involving the states of Arunachal Pradesh and whipping up boundary issues that may hinder its own interests in Afghanistan,Pakistan and Central Asia .Harmonization of relations between India, china and Japan appear more pertinent at this juncture when the region is facing twin threats –one by radical Islam and other the political crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The relations between India , China and Japan have to be altered drastically to cope with the happenings and challenges taking place in the Muslim World.
US cannot afford to shun the responsibility of giving a long term stability to this region having invested vast resources including political and diplomatic efforts . Obama administration is contemplating the establishment of bases in and around the vicinity of this region this becomes all the most pertinent in view of the ultra jihadists ISIS that are straddling in the region of Syria and Iraq and are recruiting world wide to become a terror army.
During his first visit to India ,Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and is expected to announce major Chinese investments as well as hold talks on border dispute as well as China's plans to revive a number of Silk Road Projects including the Maritime Silk Road.
Thus,India China and Afghanistan has the wherewithal to jointly coordinate for the stability of this region and they will have to ensure that changing political scene in Pakistan may not create problems for Afghanistan
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