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Dec 21, 2011

North Korea after Kim Jong II

After the succession process of Kim Jong un in North Korea following the death of his father Kim Jong-Il gets completed , the world leaders  will be watching  the direction in which the young leader takes his country. The matters relating to domestic reforms ,
foreign policy, internal stability  and nuclear ambitions may be of utmost concern to its closet ally China as well as US (being global power),Russia South Korea and Japan. India will also be concerned because of the nuclear interests North Korea shares with Pakistan .


   
The internal stability of regime of Kim jong un may become a matter of immediate concern as he was declared successor recently though under the guardianship of Jang Song-threk, considered to be the most powerful political figure in the country. Not much is known to the outside world about the internal dynamics of this world’s most reclusive dictatorship. The North Korea’s power elite is a three-pronged structure of the military, worker’s party of Korea and the parliament.

Yet, how the regime of this untested young leader unfolds will be revealed in the near future in the manner the young successor conducts his state affairs and develops his own coterie.The question arises what will happen to the Korean peninsula as it might spark in the military postures of North and South Korea but US is hopeful that calm would prevail.

China as its aloes strategic ally will naturally be watching the developments in this country most cautiously and respond to them  in a manner that the strategic strength  of this partner may not translate  into a liability for China. Meanwhile US will be keen to use this opportunity of re-engaging Korea in six party nuclear talks  to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for  food aid.

Further more the outcome of presidential elections of South Korea and Xi Jinping likely taking over as President of China next year may further impact the situation  in some manner or the other . The relations between the two Koreas are hardly satisfactory as it is known by the shelling  last year of South Korean border Island by the Pyongyang and these may show signs of little reconciliation  between the two Koreas. US President Barack Obama has already announced  Asia pacific region as the “Pivot” of his foreign policy  for Asia which may have special bearing for engaging Korea in a more proactive manner.

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