Analysts and policy experts are prominently arguing about the affects that political upheavals in Mid-East may have on the internal political dynamics of Iran. With memories of debates that raged between Mir Hossein Mousavi and former speaker Mehdi Karroubi reformists and the hardliners camps after the elections in 2009 still fresh in their minds, some
are hinting about a basic change that may occur in Iran’s public mind and society. As Iran appears ready to grasp a bigger role in the mid –east affairs after the political upheavals and as well as reorient its relation with some big powers like India, China and Russia, consequent upon the changing scenario in Mid-east and simultaneous withdrawal of US military presence from Afghanistan and Iraq,these conjectures appear natural .But such matters are rather perceived in an much amplified sense by the outside world . Shia-Sunni interaction proceeds normally in-between and within various muslim countries of the mid-east, keeping in view national interests of the countries involved. Such differences look accentuated to the US that is pursuing a policy to curtail Iran’s role and stature for their own reasons. Reformists and hardliners have remained at the helms of Iran’s leadership without making any substantial change to the system adopted by the Islamic republic of Iran.The change may however automatically come with Iran being given bigger engagement in the regional and global affairs by and by with the passage of time .However Iran is constructively developing relations with India , Russia and China that may be conducive to global order and in the mid east area.
Iran’s maturity in enhancing constructive relationship in the countries of central Asia and gulf countries, both of whom have mainly Sunni populations ,may be taken as a case for study.Turkish traditions and languages in Central Asia as well as Arabic traditions (though severely and bitterly divided by tribal considerations) and
languages have not come in the way of Iran’s providing a sense or semblance of military protection to both the blocs. Of course,US military presence in the gulf countries at a later stage introduced an element of tension of some sorts in the region of mid east . It may in fact be this tension that prompts US to actively appose IPI
gas pipeline that could otherwise help bring stability in the concerned region. Likewise Iran’s nuclear programme publicly declared for peaceful purpose could not evade agreement for so long with US succeeding in getting economic sanctions clamped down on Iran. Both US and Iran might owe some explanation for failure to harmonize their relations, so badly needed at this juncture of financial
constraint in the global context.
Another major hurdle in the US, Iran relations in the Mid-east appears to be Israel’s continued evasive attitude in bringing about the two-nations solution to the Palestine problem to fruition.Holding Israel as its closest ally in defense manufacturing and defence cooperation, US supports Israel in most irrational manner while the later is blatantly constructing settlements on Palestinian land in Jerusalem and wreaking sufferings on the Gazans by unleashing violence on a most disproportionate scale..Changing environments in the Mid
East as well as normalization efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq could inject sanity in the approach of US, Israel and Iran to solve this unduly outstanding problem with mutual benefits.
Political turmoil’s in the Arab world riding on the back of public outrage and anger against oppressive authoritarian regimes continuing for unduly long periods of thirty to forty years, called for a democratic change in the governance system of the region. Since these authoritarian autocrats (as well as kings) were supported by the US for reasons of oil wealth in the region, there also developed anti-US feelings during the upheavals.The situation had worsened due to utter joblessness among the educated youth that formed bulk of the population. Iran with democratic set up, with elections held every four years , naturally came out strongly supportive of change in Egypt,Bahrain and Yemen and now generally supports the change in other countries of the Arab world simultaneously readying itself to shoulder the bigger role.The disharmony caused by US trying to curtail Iran’s role may end up in some sort of understanding and cooperation between two nations simultaneously altering a bit Iran’s policy orientations in the region.
The major jolt suffered by the transition in Libya calls for further consideration especially in the context of bitter tribal divisions and bitterness coupled with sectarian strife within the country..
The operations by France, UK and US currently taking place under the leadership of NATO , in pursuance to security council resolution though abstained by India , China , Brazil and Russia ( of the BRIC bloc) has evoked an altogether different response from the block of emerging economies that have taken the main mantle of pulling the world out of the economic and financial mess of yesteryears.
In view of their now prominent role in world affairs these countries in a meeting held in Sanya on April 14th in China are stressing the US/NATO not to use force to enforce a regime change or which may effect territorial integrity or sovereignty of Libya. Indian prime Minister Manmohan Singh particularly pointed out the importance of consultation rather than force as a way to find a solution the crisis laying emphasis on democratic motivations behind the events.The meeting concluded that “There is a shift of power to the ordinary citizen in Mid East .People are determining their own future and are determined to take their own decisions”. Iran as a major player in Mid East has obviously taken note of these developments that may
impact its external dynamics in the region as well as internal dynamics in society within the country.
Implications arising out of Iran and US rivalry in the Mid East are huge that may embrace US interests in :-
1 , Central Asia with Iran having influence in republics formed due to break-up of the Soviet Union, and its developing relations with Russia and China in the said context.
2. Afghanistan where withdrawal of US ,military presence in a few years may lead to nurturing up of relations between the two countries.
3 And in having a country like Iran with Persian culture and heritage, cultivating mutual friendly relations .These implications may have to be weighed and judged in the context of changing global scenario projected by BRIC countries meeting in Sanya prominently stressing for currency reforms due to inadequacies of the present system and political reforms in UN security council asking for permanent seat for India , Brazil and South Africa to properly represent these regions.
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